| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Euro Stoxx 50 | 5,719.90 | -1.09% |
| DAX | 23,591.03 | -0.94% |
| CAC 40 | 7,993.49 | -0.65% |
| EUR/USD | 1.16 | -0.39% |
| EUR/GBP | 0.87 | -0.14% |
| EUR/JPY | 183.22 | +0.19% |
| Gold | 5,132.10 | -0.27% |
| Brent Crude | 108.84 | +17.42% |
| Bitcoin | 67,326.40 | +2.06% |
| German 2Y Bund | - | - |
| German 10Y Bund | 2.81% | -0.27% |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Factory Orders Month-over-Month | 7.80 | -4.30 | 03:00 |
| Industrial Production Month-over-Month | -1.90 | 0.90 | 03:00 |
| Trade Balance | -4,800m | -4,600m | 23:45 |
| Trade Balance | 17,100m | 15,200m | 03:00 |
| Exports Month-over-Month | 4 | - | 03:00 |
| Industrial Production Month-over-Month | -0.40 | 0.20 | 01:00 |
| Wholesale Prices Month-over-Month | 0.90 | 0.40 | 03:00 |
| Wholesale Prices Year-over-Year | 1.20 | - | 03:00 |
Eurozone markets closed lower yesterday amid escalating geopolitical tensions, with the Euro Stoxx 50 index falling 1.09% to 5,719.90 on selling in tech and industrials. Germany's DAX index declined 0.94% to 23,591.03, pressured by energy cost worries impacting manufacturing stocks. France's CAC 40 dropped 0.65% to 7,993.49, as luxury sectors offset some banking gains.The EUR/USD pair weakened 0.39% to 1.16, while EUR/GBP eased 0.14% to 0.87, but EUR/JPY rose 0.19% to 183.22 amid yen volatility. German 10-year Bund yields fell 0.27% to 2.81%, signaling safe-haven demand. Brent crude surged 17.42% to $108.84, fueled by Middle East supply disruptions, boosting energy stocks but weighing on broader indices.No major member-state macro releases were reported yesterday.
Today features German factory orders month-over-month at 03:00 ET, expected to decline 4.3% after a 7.8% prior gain, alongside industrial production month-over-month forecasted at 0.9% following a -1.9% drop. France's trade balance releases at 23:45 ET, with consensus at -4.6 billion euros versus -4.8 billion previously, potentially signaling export trends. Tomorrow brings Germany's trade balance at 03:00 ET, projected at 15.2 billion euros after 17.1 billion, plus exports month-over-month with no consensus.Later this week, Italy's industrial production month-over-month is due Thursday at 01:00 ET, expected at 0.2% following -0.4%. Germany's wholesale prices month-over-month and year-over-year follow at 03:00 ET, with MoM consensus at 0.4% after 0.9% and no YoY consensus. These indicators will gauge manufacturing resilience amid energy shocks.
Broader Eurozone themes highlight persistent pressures from oil surges, complicating monetary policy amid geopolitical risks. Unemployment remains at 6.70% across the region, supporting consumer spending but vulnerable to energy-driven slowdowns in Germany and France. Supply chain disruptions from Middle East conflicts are exacerbating industrial weaknesses, particularly in export-heavy economies like Italy and Spain.Recent data points to ongoing challenges in manufacturing and trade, with potential impacts on growth if energy costs remain elevated.
Global macro developments are dominated by the escalating Iran war, driving Brent crude to highs and stoking inflation fears that could delay rate adjustments worldwide. The US dollar strengthened against the euro, bolstered by oil price support and robust US data ahead of non-farm payrolls, pressuring EUR/USD lower. Middle East bottlenecks are damaging German exports and raising energy costs, as noted in reports of government alarms over supply chains.Spanish businesses fear potential US trade clashes under Trump, adding to Eurozone uncertainty. Oil surges are testing central banks, with renewed risks challenging growth outlooks. Gold dipped 0.27% to $5,132.10 as a safe-haven, while Bitcoin rose 2.06% to $67,326.40 on risk-on flows.These factors amplify downside risks for Eurozone equities and bonds, with reports highlighting economic fallout from the conflict.
The ECB maintained its deposit rate at 2.00% in the latest decision on March 6, emphasizing vigilance amid geopolitical tensions and energy price volatility. Staff projections likely incorporate higher energy costs, with forward guidance signaling data-dependent moves and no immediate cuts despite growth concerns. Governing Council communications stress balanced risks, focusing on wage dynamics and services inflation without altering quantitative tightening pace.TPI and PEPP reinvestments remain flexible to counter fragmentation, supporting peripheral bonds like Italy's. Markets interpret this as hawkish-leaning, pricing in delayed easing that could pressure Bund yields higher if oil persists. Recent statements highlight geopolitical shocks as upside inflation risks, urging caution on policy normalization.This stance bolsters the euro but weighs on equities amid growth fears.