| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Euro Stoxx 50 | 5,748.89 | -0.79% |
| DAX | 23,640.03 | -1.37% |
| CAC 40 | 7,984.44 | -0.71% |
| EUR/USD | 1.15 | -0.37% |
| EUR/GBP | 0.86 | +0.03% |
| EUR/JPY | 183.26 | -0.20% |
| Gold | 5,103.00 | -0.25% |
| Brent Crude | 96.23 | -4.21% |
| Bitcoin | 71,376.02 | +1.67% |
| German 2Y Bund | - | - |
| German 10Y Bund | 2.81% | -0.27% |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Factory Orders Month-over-Month | 6.40 | -4.30 | -11.10 |
| Industrial Production Month-over-Month | -1 | 0.90 | -0.50 |
| Trade Balance | 17,400m | 15,200m | 21,200m |
| Exports Month-over-Month | 3.90 | - | -2.30 |
| Trade Balance | -4,300m | -4,600m | -1,800m |
| Consumer Confidence Index | 80.50 | - | 83.90 |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wholesale Prices Month-over-Month | 0.90 | 0.40 | 23:00 |
| Wholesale Prices Year-over-Year | 1.20 | - | 23:00 |
| Industrial Production Month-over-Month | -0.40 | 0.30 | 01:00 |
| Headline Unemployment Rate | 4 | - | 01:30 |
German factory orders plunged 11.1% month-over-month, missing the -4.3% consensus after 6.4% prior, underscoring manufacturing contraction. Industrial production fell 0.5% month-over-month, below the 0.9% consensus following -1% prior, hit by Iran war supply disruptions. Trade balance beat expectations at €21.2 billion versus €15.2 billion consensus and €17.4 billion prior, though exports dropped 2.3% month-over-month from 3.9% prior.France's trade balance improved to -€1.8 billion, better than -€4.6 billion consensus and -€4.3 billion prior, aiding regional sentiment. Spanish consumer confidence climbed to 83.9 from 80.5 prior, showing resilience despite headwinds. Markets weakened: Euro Stoxx 50 fell 0.79% to 5,748.89, DAX dropped 1.37% to 23,640.03, CAC 40 slipped 0.71% to 7,984.44.EUR/USD declined 0.37% to 1.15, EUR/GBP rose 0.03% to 0.86, EUR/JPY fell 0.20% to 183.26. Gold dipped 0.25% to 5,103.00, Brent crude fell 4.21% to 96.23, Bitcoin gained 1.67% to 71,376.02. German 10Y Bund yield dropped 0.27% to 2.81%.
Germany's wholesale prices month-over-month and year-over-year release at 23:00 ET, with 0.4% monthly consensus after 0.9% prior and 1.2% yearly prior, could affect inflation views amid energy shocks. Italy's industrial production month-over-month at 01:00 ET, expected at 0.3% following -0.4% prior, may highlight trends in the bloc's third-largest economy. Netherlands' headline unemployment rate at 01:30 ET, previous 4%, to gauge labor market strength.No ECB speeches scheduled, but watch for comments on war risks. Tomorrow's calendar is empty, focusing attention on next week's data. Releases could influence ECB rate outlooks if they signal ongoing inflation from Iran conflict.
Eurozone faces rising energy prices from Iran war, with German fuel costs highest in EU, slowing recovery after recent progress. Major economies including France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands back single EU finance watchdog to advance savings and investments union as strategic priority. ECB hawks note energy and fiscal risks boosting inflation into 2025.(cont...)
Banque de France hosts conference on climate and nature-related financial risks. EU-UK talks advance on single-market access, with France seeking budget contributions.
Iran war escalates Brent crude volatility, down 4.21% to 96.23 but still high, pressuring Eurozone importers like Germany and France with inflation risks. G7 energy ministers discussed coordinated strategic oil reserve releases amid Strait of Hormuz closure to ease supplies. TotalEnergies halted 15% of production in Qatar, Iraq, UAE, worsening global energy shortages impacting Eurozone growth.EUR/USD fell 0.37% to 1.15 on dollar strength, contrasting ECB's hawkish stance. Gold eased 0.25% to 5,103.00 as safe haven, Bitcoin rose 1.67% to 71,376.02 amid mixed sentiment. Six EU economies support unified finance watchdog for capital markets.Forecasts warn of higher European inflation if Iran war persists. Commerzbank analysis shows ECB hawkish comments shifting rate expectations due to energy and fiscal risks.
ECB maintains vigilance on Iran war risks, committing to inflation control via data-dependent guidance without premature easing. Hawkish voices emphasize energy and fiscal pressures intensifying in 2025, per Commerzbank and CryptoRank analyses, supporting sustained high rates. The committee held the deposit rate at 2.00%.Projections recognize potential inflation surges from conflict, stressing flexibility. Forward guidance highlights readiness to adjust if inflation strays from 2% target, influencing Bund yields with 10-year at 2.81% down 0.27%. TPI and PEPP tools remain available to address fragmentation, especially in Italy and Spain.Markets see prolonged restrictive policy amid geopolitical volatility.