Eurozone Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
German CPI Matches Forecasts, Stocks Diverge
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Euro Stoxx 50 | 5,541.79 | +0.65% |
| DAX | 22,300.75 | -1.38% |
| CAC 40 | 7,772.45 | +0.92% |
| EUR/USD | 1.15 | -0.16% |
| EUR/GBP | 0.87 | +0.11% |
| EUR/JPY | 183.07 | -0.58% |
| Gold | 4,590.00 | +1.41% |
| Brent Crude | 107.17 | -4.97% |
| Bitcoin | 67,489.75 | +2.33% |
| German 2Y Bund | - | - |
| German 10Y Bund | 2.81% | -0.27% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Business Confidence Index | -2.60 | - | - |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year Preliminary | 1.90 | 2.70 | 2.70 |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month Preliminary | 0.20 | 1.10 | 1.10 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year Preliminary | 2.40 | - | 2.70 |
Eurozone Short-Term Rates | Type: macro_line | Short-Term Rate %: 1.932 (2026-01-01) | Range: -0.5847–3.909 | Trend(6pt): -0.5661,-0.5826,3.61,3.371,1.929,1.932
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales Month-over-Month | -0.90 | 0.30 | 22:00 |
| Retail Sales Year-over-Year | 1.20 | 1 | 22:00 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year Preliminary | 0.90 | - | 22:45 |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month Preliminary | 0.60 | 0.80 | 22:45 |
| Headline Unemployment Rate | 6.30 | - | 23:55 |
| Unemployed Persons Level | 3.0m | - | 23:55 |
| Unemployment Level Change | 1,000 | 4,000 | 23:55 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year Preliminary | 1.50 | - | 01:00 |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month Preliminary | 0.70 | 0.50 | 01:00 |
| HCOB Manufacturing PMI | 50 | 50.50 | 23:15 |
- German preliminary inflation hit 2.7% YoY, aligning with consensus and signaling ongoing price pressures.
- Eurozone equities mixed: Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.65%, DAX down 1.38% amid inflation data.
- Key releases ahead include French and Italian CPI, German retail sales, and manufacturing PMIs.
Yesterday's Recap
Eurozone markets showed varied reactions to inflation data aligning with expectations, supporting a modest euro strengthening. Germany's preliminary inflation rate year-over-year reached 2.7%, matching consensus and rising from the previous 1.9%, while the month-over-month figure met forecasts at 1.1%, up from 0.2%, driven by energy costs. Netherlands preliminary inflation year-over-year climbed to 2.7% from 2.4%, indicating regional price persistence without a stated consensus.
Spain's business confidence index showed no actual release, with prior at -2.6, suggesting potential sentiment softness. Equities diverged: Euro Stoxx 50 gained 0.65% to 5,541.79, buoyed by French performance as CAC 40 rose 0.92% to 7,772.45, while DAX declined 1.38% to 22,300.75 on inflation-driven repricing. Currency shifts were subdued, with EUR/USD down 0.16% to 1.15, EUR/GBP up 0.11% to 0.87, and EUR/JPY down 0.58% to 183.07.
German 10Y Bund yields fell 0.27% to 2.81%, easing slightly. The session maintained a balanced tone with data meeting projections.
The Day Ahead
Focus turns to Germany's retail sales, expected at 0.3% month-over-month from -0.9% and 1% year-over-year from 1.2%, highlighting consumer trends. French preliminary inflation year-over-year follows 0.9% prior without consensus, with month-over-month at 0.8% expected from 0.6%, key for Eurozone insights. German labor data includes headline unemployment rate around 6.3% prior, unemployed persons at 2,977,000 prior, and unemployment change forecasted at 4,000 from 1,000.
Italian preliminary inflation year-over-year succeeds 1.5% prior without consensus, month-over-month at 0.5% expected from 0.7%. Spain's HCOB Manufacturing PMI is projected at 50.5 from 50.0, and Italy's at 50.8 from 50.6. These could sway yields and ECB expectations.
Other Economic Notes
Eurozone faces stagflation concerns, with inflation above target amid slowing growth from geopolitical strains. Fiscal discussions escalate, as Germany and Netherlands urge tighter 2027 budgets to address deficits, clashing with French preferences. (cont...)
