Eurozone Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
EZ Inflation Steady, Stocks Climb
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Euro Stoxx 50 | 5,569.73 | +0.50% |
| DAX | 22,562.88 | +1.18% |
| CAC 40 | 7,816.94 | +0.57% |
| EUR/USD | 1.16 | +0.95% |
| EUR/GBP | 0.87 | +0.41% |
| EUR/JPY | 183.12 | -0.55% |
| Gold | 4,704.30 | +1.22% |
| Brent Crude | 105.12 | -11.18% |
| Bitcoin | 68,240.60 | +2.32% |
| German 2Y Bund | - | - |
| German 10Y Bund | 2.81% | -0.27% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year Preliminary | 1.90 | 2.70 | 2.70 |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month Preliminary | 0.20 | 1.10 | 1.10 |
| Business Confidence Index | -2.70 | - | -4.20 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year Preliminary | 2.40 | - | 2.70 |
| Retail Sales Month-over-Month | -1.10 | 0.20 | -0.60 |
| Retail Sales Year-over-Year | 1 | 1 | 0.70 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year Preliminary | 0.90 | 1.60 | 1.70 |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month Preliminary | 0.60 | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| Headline Unemployment Rate | 6.30 | 6.30 | 6.30 |
| Unemployed Persons Level | 3.0m | - | 3.0m |
ECB Short-Term Rates | Type: macro_line | Short-Term Rate %: 1.932 (2026-01-01) | Range: -0.5847–3.909 | Trend(5pt): -0.5647,-0.5711,3.713,3.165,1.932
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| HCOB Manufacturing PMI | 50 | 50.30 | 23:15 |
| HCOB Manufacturing PMI | 50.60 | 50.90 | 23:45 |
| Headline Unemployment Rate | 5.10 | 5.20 | 00:00 |
| Retail Sales Month-over-Month | 0.60 | 0.40 | 01:00 |
| Industrial Production Month-over-Month | 0.50 | 0 | 22:45 |
- German, French, and Italian inflation prints met or slightly exceeded expectations, indicating persistent price pressures from energy and food.
- German retail sales missed forecasts with a monthly decline, while unemployment remained unchanged, showing resilient labor but weak consumption.
- Eurozone stocks rose amid positive sentiment, with EUR gaining versus USD and GBP, supported by mixed data and lower Bund yields.
Yesterday's Recap
Preliminary German inflation hit 2.7% year-over-year, matching consensus, with month-over-month at 1.1% as expected, influenced by energy and food. French preliminary inflation rose to 1.7% year-over-year, edging above the 1.6% consensus, and month-over-month reached 0.9% versus 0.8% forecast. Italian preliminary inflation climbed to 1.7% year-over-year, with month-over-month at 0.5% aligning with expectations.
Spanish business confidence dropped to -4.2 from -2.7, signaling worsening sentiment. German retail sales fell 0.6% month-over-month, below the 0.2% consensus, and rose 0.7% year-over-year against 1.0% expected; unemployment rate stayed at 6.3%, with unemployed persons unchanged at 2,977,000 and no shift in unemployment level. Dutch preliminary inflation increased to 2.7% year-over-year.
Markets responded favorably: Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.50% to 5,569.73, DAX +1.18% to 22,562.88, CAC 40 +0.57% to 7,816.94, EUR/USD +0.95% to 1.16, EUR/GBP +0.41% to 0.87, EUR/JPY -0.55% to 183.12, gold +1.22% to 4,704.30, Brent crude -11.18% to 105.12, bitcoin +2.32% to 68,240.60, and German 10Y Bund yield down 0.27% to 2.81%.
The Day Ahead
Spanish HCOB Manufacturing PMI is set for release at 23:15 previous day ET, with consensus at 50.3 versus prior 50.0, gauging peripheral factory activity. Italian HCOB Manufacturing PMI follows at 23:45 ET, expected at 50.9 from 50.6, amid supply chain issues. Italian headline unemployment rate due at 00:00 ET, forecast at 5.2% from 5.1%, providing labor market insights.
These indicators could shape views on Eurozone industrial health and influence ECB policy expectations, potentially driving euro and equity volatility.
Other Economic Notes
Eurozone faces stagflation risks as energy costs rise from geopolitical tensions, slowing growth while sustaining inflation. Fiscal tensions escalate, with Germany and Netherlands pushing stricter debt rules against resistance from Italy and France, risking 2027 budget delays. (cont...)
