Eurozone Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Eurozone Inflation Edges Up, Stocks Rally
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Euro Stoxx 50 | 5,732.71 | +2.93% |
| DAX | 22,680.04 | +0.52% |
| CAC 40 | 7,981.27 | +2.10% |
| EUR/USD | 1.15 | -0.28% |
| EUR/GBP | 0.87 | -0.26% |
| EUR/JPY | 183.82 | +0.19% |
| Gold | 4,692.30 | -1.90% |
| Brent Crude | 107.16 | +5.93% |
| Bitcoin | 66,280.02 | -2.86% |
| German 2Y Bund | - | - |
| German 10Y Bund | 2.81% | -0.27% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year Preliminary | 1.90 | 2.70 | 2.70 |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month Preliminary | 0.20 | 1.10 | 1.10 |
| Business Confidence Index | -2.70 | - | -4.20 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year Preliminary | 2.40 | - | 2.70 |
| Retail Sales Month-over-Month | -1.10 | 0.20 | -0.60 |
| Retail Sales Year-over-Year | 1 | 1 | 0.70 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year Preliminary | 0.90 | 1.60 | 1.70 |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month Preliminary | 0.60 | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| Headline Unemployment Rate | 6.30 | 6.30 | 6.30 |
| Unemployed Persons Level | 3.0m | - | 3.0m |
Eurozone Short-Term Rates | Type: macro_line | Short-Term Rate %: 1.932 (2026-01-01) | Range: -0.5847–3.909 | Trend(5pt): -0.5647,-0.5711,3.713,3.165,1.932
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales Month-over-Month | 0.60 | 0.40 | 01:00 |
| Industrial Production Month-over-Month | 0.50 | 0 | 22:45 |
| Friday (2026-04-03) | |||
| Industrial Production Month-over-Month | 0.50 | 0 | 22:45 |
- Eurozone inflation preliminaries indicated mild upward pressure, with German and French YoY rates meeting or slightly beating consensus, driven by energy factors.
- Equities advanced strongly, Euro Stoxx 50 up 2.93% and CAC 40 up 2.10%, while EUR/USD fell 0.28% amid mixed global cues.
- German retail sales missed expectations, down 0.6% MoM versus 0.2% consensus, underscoring consumer caution despite steady unemployment.
Yesterday's Recap
German preliminary inflation hit 2.7% YoY, matching consensus and up from 1.9% prior, with MoM at 1.1% as forecast, pointing to energy influences. French preliminary inflation reached 1.7% YoY, edging above 1.6% consensus, and 0.9% MoM versus 0.8% expected, suggesting rising services prices. Italian preliminary inflation dipped to 1.7% YoY against 1.8% consensus, with MoM at 0.5% below 0.7% expected, indicating softer goods inflation.
Spanish business confidence declined to -4.2 from -2.7, undershooting forecasts, while Dutch inflation rose to 2.7% YoY from 2.4%. German retail sales fell 0.6% MoM, missing 0.2% consensus, and 0.7% YoY below 1.0% expected; unemployment stayed at 6.3% with zero change in levels versus 2000 consensus. Italian manufacturing PMI climbed to 51.3, topping 50.9 consensus, but Spanish PMI dropped to 48.7 versus 50.4 expected.
Markets responded bullishly, Euro Stoxx 50 up 2.93%, DAX up 0.52%, CAC 40 up 2.10%, and German 10Y Bund yield down 0.27% to 2.81%, as data bolstered ECB rate-cut speculation.
The Day Ahead
Focus on Italian retail sales MoM, expected at 0.4% versus 0.6% prior, offering insights into consumer trends amid manufacturing strength. French industrial data, likely production figures, may highlight sector resilience or strains. ECB speakers could address inflation dynamics, potentially moving Bund yields.
Broader Eurozone sentiment might hinge on any surprises in Italian metrics, influencing EUR pairs. Low volatility expected unless data deviates, with eyes on peripheral fiscal updates.
Other Economic Notes
German institutes cut 2026 growth forecast to 0.6%, blaming energy price shocks and export challenges, highlighting risks in the bloc's core economy. EU Commission signals fiscal concerns for France and Italy amid deficit talks and higher borrowing. AI boosts seen in sectors like autos, per Siemens updates, could counter disinflation.
Mixed PMI data underscores uneven recovery, with Italian gains offsetting Spanish weakness.
