Eurozone Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Eurozone Inflation Ticks Up, PMI Contracts
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Euro Stoxx 50 | 5,692.86 | -0.70% |
| DAX | 22,680.04 | +0.52% |
| CAC 40 | 7,962.39 | -0.24% |
| EUR/USD | 1.15 | -0.45% |
| EUR/GBP | 0.87 | +0.08% |
| EUR/JPY | 184.11 | +0.11% |
| Gold | 4,651.50 | -2.75% |
| Brent Crude | 109.03 | +7.78% |
| Bitcoin | 66,639.44 | -2.11% |
| German 2Y Bund | - | - |
| German 10Y Bund | 2.81% | -0.27% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year Preliminary | 1.90 | 2.70 | 2.70 |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month Preliminary | 0.20 | 1.10 | 1.10 |
| Business Confidence Index | -2.70 | - | -4.20 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year Preliminary | 2.40 | - | 2.70 |
| Retail Sales Month-over-Month | -1.10 | 0.20 | -0.60 |
| Retail Sales Year-over-Year | 1 | 1 | 0.70 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year Preliminary | 0.90 | 1.60 | 1.70 |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month Preliminary | 0.60 | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| Headline Unemployment Rate | 6.30 | 6.30 | 6.30 |
| Unemployed Persons Level | 3.0m | - | 3.0m |
German 10Y Yield | Type: macro_line | 10Y Yield %: 2.807 (2026-01-01) | Range: -0.5386–2.823 | Trend(5pt): -0.2235,1.082,2.661,2.306,2.807
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial Production Month-over-Month | 0.50 | 0 | 22:45 |
- Preliminary inflation rose in Germany, France, and Netherlands, meeting or slightly beating consensus, while Italy's eased slightly amid mixed demand signals.
- Spanish manufacturing PMI fell to 48.7, signaling contraction and industrial weakness; German retail sales disappointed with declines.
- Markets mixed: Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.70%, DAX up 0.52%; EUR/USD weakened 0.45% to 1.15; Brent surged 7.78% to 109.03.
Yesterday's Recap
German preliminary inflation hit 2.7% YoY and 1.1% MoM, matching consensus but up from 1.9% and 0.2% prior, likely due to energy and food pressures. French figures rose to 1.7% YoY and 0.9% MoM, edging above 1.6% and 0.8% expectations, pointing to services persistence. Italian inflation dipped to 1.7% YoY with 0.5% MoM versus 0.7% consensus, suggesting softer demand.
Spanish business confidence worsened to -4.2 from -2.7, and HCOB manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.7, below 50.4 forecast and prior 50.0, indicating contraction. German retail sales fell 0.6% MoM against 0.2% expected and 0.7% YoY versus 1.0% consensus; unemployment rate steady at 6.3%, with no change in unemployed persons from 2,977,000. Dutch inflation rose to 2.7% YoY from 2.4%.
Markets varied: Euro Stoxx 50 fell 0.70% to 5,692.86 on PMI concerns, DAX rose 0.52% to 22,680.04 supported by exporters, CAC 40 dipped 0.24% to 7,962.39; EUR/USD declined 0.45% to 1.15, EUR/GBP up 0.08% to 0.87, EUR/JPY up 0.11% to 184.11; German 10Y Bund yield fell 0.27% to 2.81%.
The Day Ahead
French industrial production MoM is due at 22:45 ET, with consensus at 0% following 0.5% prior; actual data pending, potentially influencing CAC 40 if it signals manufacturing trends. No other major Eurozone events listed, but markets may monitor for any unscheduled data or comments. Broader focus on inflation trajectories could affect EUR crosses and Bund yields if global energy developments spill over.
Other Economic Notes
Energy volatility persists, with German diesel prices hitting records despite new regulations limiting daily hikes, as consumer groups note ineffectiveness. Eurozone unemployment at 6.70% supports resilience but highlights disparities, such as higher rates in Italy. Fiscal prudence remains key amid French deficit concerns, potentially limiting growth stimulus.
Global Macro News
US crude oil reached $110 per barrel, driving Brent to 109.03 with a 7.78% rise, amid Trump's Iran comments dashing de-escalation hopes and raising imported inflation risks for Eurozone. (cont...)
