Eurozone Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Germany Halves Growth Outlook on Iran War Hit
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Euro Stoxx 50 | 5,906.22 | -0.41% |
| DAX | 24,270.87 | -0.60% |
| CAC 40 | 8,156.43 | -0.96% |
| EUR/USD | 1.17 | -0.28% |
| EUR/GBP | 0.87 | -0.20% |
| EUR/JPY | 187.17 | -0.01% |
| Gold | 4,727.60 | -0.10% |
| Brent Crude | 103.02 | +1.09% |
| Bitcoin | 78,128.24 | +2.33% |
| German 2Y Bund | - | - |
| German 10Y Bund | 2.91% | +5.84% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Producer Price Index Year-over-Year | -3.30 | - | -0.20 |
| Trade Balance | -4,000m | - | -3,300m |
| ZEW Economic Sentiment Index | -0.50 | -5 | -17.20 |
| Consumer Confidence Index | -30 | - | -44 |
Brent Crude Oil Price | Type: macro_line | Brent Price (USD): 103.4 (2026-04-20) | Range: 59.93–138.2 | Trend(5pt): 65.5,106.8,91.88,80.57,103.4
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Business Confidence Index | 99 | 99 | 22:45 |
| S&P Global Composite PMI Flash | 48.80 | 48.60 | 23:15 |
| S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash | 50 | 49.50 | 23:15 |
| S&P Global Services PMI Flash | 48.80 | 48.40 | 23:15 |
| S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash | 52.20 | 51.30 | 23:30 |
| S&P Global Composite PMI Flash | 51.90 | 51.10 | 23:30 |
| S&P Global Services PMI Flash | 50.90 | 50.30 | 23:30 |
| Consumer Confidence Index | 89 | 88 | 22:45 |
| Ifo Business Climate | 86.40 | 85.50 | 00:00 |
- Germany halves 2026 GDP forecast to 0.5% amid Iran war energy shock; ZEW sentiment dives to -17.2.
- Eurozone stocks slip 0.4-1.0%; German 10Y Bund yield rises to 2.91%.
- ECB stresses data-dependent stance amid war uncertainty, tempering policy shift urgency.
Yesterday's Recap
German Producer Price Index improved to -0.2% year-over-year, easing from -3.3%, indicating reduced deflation but persistent negativity from energy swings. Spain's trade balance narrowed to -3.3 billion euros, better than prior -4.0 billion, yet exports face global demand headwinds. Germany's ZEW Economic Sentiment Index plunged to -17.2, missing consensus -5 and previous -0.5, driven by Iran war pessimism.
Netherlands' Consumer Confidence Index fell to -44.0 from -30.0, signaling worsening household sentiment. Eurozone equities weakened: Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.41% to 5,906.22, DAX off 0.60% to 24,270.87, CAC 40 lower 0.96% to 8,156.43, amid risk aversion from soft data. EUR/USD declined 0.28% to 1.17; German 10Y Bund yield climbed to 2.91%.
Brent crude gained 1.09% to 103.02, heightening energy import concerns for Germany and France.
The Day Ahead
France Business Confidence Index releases at 22:45 ET, consensus 99 matching prior, gauging manufacturing stability. French S&P Global flash PMIs follow at 23:15 ET: composite expected 48.6 from 48.8, manufacturing 49.5 from 50.0, services 48.4 from 48.8, potentially confirming contraction. German S&P Global flash PMIs at 23:30 ET: manufacturing forecast 51.3 from 52.2, composite 51.1 from 51.9, services 50.3 from 50.9, assessing economic resilience.
France Consumer Confidence Index due at 22:45 ET on April 24, expected 88 from 89, amid spending caution. Germany Ifo Business Climate at 00:00 ET on April 24, consensus 85.5 from 86.4, possibly reflecting war-induced gloom.
Other Economic Notes
Germany cut its 2026 GDP forecast to 0.5% from prior estimates, citing Iran war energy price surges impacting industry; 2027 outlook lowered to 0.9%. Bundesbank notes Q1 growth likely occurred but war clouds prospects. France upholds 2029 deficit target despite reduced growth forecasts, prioritizing fiscal restraint amid Middle East costs.
Eurozone budget deficits narrowed in 2025 but may rebound from conflict effects, challenging recoveries in Italy and Spain. Germany plans September auctions for new gas plants to bolster energy security. Morocco and France enhance agricultural and energy ties, potentially aiding Eurozone supply chains.
