Eurozone Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
PMIs Beat, Spanish Jobs Surge
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Euro Stoxx 50 | 5,869.63 | +1.84% |
| DAX | 23,991.27 | -1.24% |
| CAC 40 | 8,062.31 | +1.08% |
| EUR/USD | 1.17 | -0.22% |
| EUR/GBP | 0.86 | +0.02% |
| EUR/JPY | 183.94 | -0.11% |
| Gold | 4,571.90 | +1.16% |
| Brent Crude | 110.15 | -3.75% |
| Bitcoin | 81,455.36 | +2.04% |
| German 2Y Bund | - | - |
| German 10Y Bund | 2.91% | +5.84% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Index | 48.70 | 49.50 | 51.70 |
| S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Index | 51.30 | 51.90 | 52.10 |
| Unemployment Level Change | -22,900 | -18,600 | -62,700 |
German 10Y Yield | Type: macro_line | German 10Y Yield %: 2.905 (2026-03-01) | Range: -0.5386–2.905 | Trend(6pt): -0.2886,1.034,2.823,2.179,2.745,2.905 | Italian 10Y Yield %: 3.388 (2026-02-01) | Range: 0.628–4.885 | Trend(5pt): 0.875,3.297,4.885,3.321,3.388
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial Production Month-over-Month | -0.70 | 0.50 | 22:45 |
| S&P Global Services PMI | 53.30 | 52.10 | 23:15 |
| S&P Global Services PMI | 48.80 | - | 23:45 |
| Retail Sales Month-over-Month | 0 | -0.40 | 00:00 |
| Factory Orders Month-over-Month | 0.90 | 1 | 22:00 |
| Trade Balance | -5,800m | -5,600m | 22:45 |
| Trade Balance | 19,800m | 18,900m | 22:00 |
| Exports Month-over-Month | 3.60 | - | 22:00 |
| Industrial Production Month-over-Month | -0.30 | 0.50 | 22:00 |
- Spanish and Italian manufacturing PMIs beat expectations, signaling sector expansion amid easing constraints.
- Spain's unemployment fell sharply beyond forecasts, enhancing consumer spending prospects.
- Mixed equities with Euro Stoxx and CAC gains offset by DAX decline; Bund yields climbed.
Yesterday's Recap
Eurozone markets displayed mixed results, as the Euro Stoxx 50 advanced 1.84% to 5,869.63 on upbeat data, while the DAX dropped 1.24% to 23,991.27 amid export worries. The CAC 40 rose 1.08% to 8,062.31, buoyed by cooling inflation signals. EUR/USD slipped 0.22% to 1.17 under dollar pressure, EUR/GBP inched up 0.02% to 0.86, and EUR/JPY fell 0.11% to 183.94.
Spain's S&P Global Manufacturing PMI climbed to 51.7, surpassing consensus of 49.5 and previous 48.7, marking expansion. Italy's equivalent hit 52.1, edging above consensus 51.9 and prior 51.3, driven by better orders. Spain's unemployment change improved to -62,700, far stronger than consensus -18,600 and prior -22,900, alleviating labor pressures.
Brent crude tumbled 3.75% to 110.15, pressuring energy stocks, while gold gained 1.16% to 4,571.90 as a haven asset. Bitcoin rose 2.04% to 81,455.36, diverging from broader risk trends. German 10Y Bund yield increased to 2.91%.
The Day Ahead
Focus shifts to France's industrial production MoM at 22:45 ET, expected at 0.5% after -0.7% prior, possibly indicating manufacturing upturn. Spain's S&P Global Services PMI at 23:15 ET forecasts 52.1 versus 53.3 prior, gauging services strength. Italy's S&P Global Services PMI at 23:45 ET follows 48.8 prior without consensus, alongside retail sales MoM at 00:00 ET expected at -0.4% after flat reading.
Germany's factory orders MoM at 22:00 ET anticipate 1% after 0.9% prior, shedding light on exports. France's trade balance at 22:45 ET projects -5.6 billion euros versus -5.8 billion prior. Germany's high-impact trade balance at 22:00 ET expects 18.9 billion euros after 19.8 billion, with exports MoM and industrial production MoM also due, the latter at 0.5% consensus after -0.3%.
Other Economic Notes
German consumer sentiment sank to its lowest since February 2023, per HDE, fueled by inflation, elevated energy costs, and economic concerns. Fuel prices in Germany averaged over two euros, climbing despite prior discounts, intensifying household burdens. (cont...)
