Eurozone Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
PMIs Mixed, Equities Surge
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Euro Stoxx 50 | 6,027.13 | +2.68% |
| DAX | 24,401.70 | +1.71% |
| CAC 40 | 8,299.42 | +2.94% |
| EUR/USD | 1.18 | +0.35% |
| EUR/GBP | 0.86 | +0.08% |
| EUR/JPY | 183.71 | -0.56% |
| Gold | 4,703.90 | +0.47% |
| Brent Crude | 101.70 | +0.42% |
| Bitcoin | 81,084.14 | +0.19% |
| German 2Y Bund | - | - |
| German 10Y Bund | 2.91% | +5.84% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Index | 48.70 | 49.50 | 51.70 |
| S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Index | 51.30 | 51.90 | 52.10 |
| Unemployment Level Change | -22,900 | -18,600 | -62,700 |
| Industrial Production Month-over-Month | -0.90 | 0.50 | 1 |
| S&P Global Services PMI | 53.30 | 52 | 47.90 |
| S&P Global Services PMI | 48.80 | - | 49.80 |
| Retail Sales Month-over-Month | -0.10 | -0.40 | 0.80 |
German vs Italian 10Y Yields | Type: macro_line | German 10Y %: 2.905 (2026-03-01) | Range: -0.5386–2.905 | Trend(6pt): -0.2886,1.034,2.823,2.179,2.745,2.905 | Italian 10Y %: 3.388 (2026-02-01) | Range: 0.628–4.885 | Trend(5pt): 0.875,3.297,4.885,3.321,3.388
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Factory Orders Month-over-Month | 0.90 | 1 | 22:00 |
| Trade Balance | -5,800m | -5,600m | 22:45 |
| Trade Balance | 19,800m | 18,900m | 22:00 |
| Exports Month-over-Month | 3.60 | - | 22:00 |
| Industrial Production Month-over-Month | -0.30 | 0.50 | 22:00 |
- Spanish and Italian manufacturing PMIs exceeded forecasts, indicating sector expansion, while Spanish services PMI disappointed and Italian improved slightly.
- Spanish unemployment dropped sharply, French industrial output beat expectations, and Italian retail sales rose unexpectedly.
- Eurozone stocks rallied strongly, with CAC 40 up 2.94%, amid euro gains versus dollar.
Yesterday's Recap
Spanish S&P Global Manufacturing PMI climbed to 51.7 in April, beating consensus of 49.5 from previous 48.7, signaling expansion. Italian S&P Global Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.1, edging above consensus of 51.9 from prior 51.3. Spanish unemployment change decreased by 62,700 in April, far surpassing consensus of -18,600 and previous -22,900.
French industrial production grew 1% month-over-month in March, topping consensus of 0.5% after prior -0.9%. Spanish S&P Global Services PMI fell to 47.9, missing consensus of 52 from previous 53.3, indicating contraction. Italian S&P Global Services PMI increased to 49.8, with no consensus from prior 48.8, still below 50.
Italian retail sales advanced 0.8% month-over-month in March, exceeding consensus of -0.4% after previous -0.1%. Equities responded positively: Euro Stoxx 50 rose 2.68% to 6,027.13, DAX 1.71% to 24,401.70, CAC 40 2.94% to 8,299.42. EUR/USD gained 0.35% to 1.18, EUR/GBP 0.08% to 0.86, while EUR/JPY dipped 0.56% to 183.71.
Gold increased 0.47% to 4,703.90, Brent crude 0.42% to 101.70, Bitcoin 0.19% to 81,084.14. German 10Y Bund yield rose 5.84% to 2.91%.
The Day Ahead
Key releases include German factory orders for March at 22:00 ET today, with consensus of 1% month-over-month after previous 0.9%. French trade balance for March follows at 22:45 ET, expected at -5.6 billion euros versus prior -5.8 billion. Tomorrow brings high-impact German trade balance for March at 22:00 ET, consensus 18.9 billion euros from previous 19.8 billion; German exports month-over-month at 22:00 ET with no consensus after prior 3.6%; and German industrial production month-over-month at 22:00 ET, consensus 0.5% following -0.3%.
These data points may shape ECB policy expectations amid mixed economic signals.
Other Economic Notes
Eurozone services sector faces headwinds, with French Services PMI at 46.5 and Composite PMI at 47.6, both signaling ongoing contraction and supporting ECB rate cut bets. Amazon plans over 15 billion euros investment in France from 2026 to 2028, boosting tech infrastructure and potential growth. (cont...)
