Eurozone Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
PMIs Slump, EU Cuts German Growth Outlook
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Euro Stoxx 50 | 5,960.32 | -0.26% |
| DAX | 24,656.53 | -0.33% |
| CAC 40 | 8,086.00 | -0.39% |
| EUR/USD | 1.16 | -0.05% |
| EUR/GBP | 0.86 | -0.05% |
| EUR/JPY | 184.76 | +0.04% |
| Gold | 4,530.60 | -0.20% |
| Brent Crude | 104.13 | +1.51% |
| Bitcoin | 77,566.70 | +0.14% |
| German 2Y Bund | - | - |
| German 10Y Bund | 3.00% | +2.97% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Confidence Index | -44 | - | -46 |
| Headline Unemployment Rate | 4 | - | 3.90 |
| S&P Global Composite PMI Flash | 47.60 | 47.70 | 43.50 |
| S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash | 52.80 | 52.20 | 48.90 |
| S&P Global Services PMI Flash | 46.50 | 46.60 | 42.90 |
| S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash | 51.40 | 51 | 49.90 |
| S&P Global Composite PMI Flash | 48.40 | 48.40 | 48.60 |
| S&P Global Services PMI Flash | 46.90 | 47 | 47.80 |
German Ifo Business Climate | Type: macro_line | Index: -18 (2026-04-01) | Range: -28–-0.8 | Trend(6pt): -1.7,-23.5,-15.2,-10.2,-11.2,-18
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| GFK Consumer Confidence Index | -33.30 | -34 | 02:00 |
| Business Confidence Index | 100 | 100 | 02:45 |
| Ifo Business Climate | 84.40 | 84.20 | 04:00 |
| Consumer Confidence Index | 84 | - | 02:45 |
| Unemployment Benefit Claims | 35,600 | - | 06:00 |
| Business Confidence Index | 87.90 | - | 04:00 |
| Consumer Confidence Index | 90.80 | - | 04:00 |
| Business Confidence Index | -5 | - | 06:00 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year Preliminary | 2.20 | - | 02:45 |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month Preliminary | 1 | - | 02:45 |
- French and German flash PMIs collapsed in May, with French composite dropping to 43.5 and German manufacturing falling to 49.9, signalling broad contraction.
- EU Commission halved its 2026 German growth forecast amid Iran war-driven energy price spikes and rising inflation.
- Euro Stoxx 50 fell 0.26% to 5,960.32 while German 10-year Bund yields rose to 3.00% as markets priced softer ECB path.
Yesterday's Recap
French S&P Global composite PMI plunged to 43.5 from 47.6, with manufacturing at 48.9 and services at 42.9, marking the sharpest private-sector contraction in five-and-a-half years. German manufacturing PMI slipped to 49.9 while the composite edged up to 48.6 and services reached 47.8. Dutch consumer confidence worsened to -46.0 and unemployment edged down to 3.9%.
Equity markets closed lower, with Euro Stoxx 50 off 0.26%, DAX down 0.33% and CAC 40 declining 0.39%. The German 10-year Bund yield climbed to 3.00%, up nearly 3%, while EUR/USD held near 1.16. News of EU growth forecast cuts and Iran-related energy shocks weighed on sentiment across the bloc.
The Day Ahead
German GfK consumer confidence and Ifo business climate headline the calendar, with consensus pointing to further softening. French business confidence is due at 02:45 ET, followed by later releases of Italian business and consumer confidence. Markets will watch for any ECB speaker comments that could clarify the reaction to yesterday’s PMI weakness.
A soft Ifo print risks reinforcing expectations for policy easing later this year.
Other Economic Notes
Germany faces Q2 stagnation and higher inflation from the Iran conflict according to Bundesbank analysis. The EU Commission has sharply lowered its eurozone 2026 growth projection below 1% while lifting its inflation forecast to 3%. Broader themes include the second China export shock hitting German industry and the resulting loss of roughly 400,000 jobs.
Energy aid measures announced in France underscore the fiscal strain from elevated commodity prices.
Global Macro News
Brent crude rose 1.51% to $104.13 on Middle East supply concerns, adding to eurozone input cost pressures. US troop movements to Poland and drawdowns in Germany highlight shifting NATO priorities that could affect European defence spending. <i>↓ p.2</i>
