Eurozone Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Bund Yields Hit 3% on ECB Hike Bets
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Euro Stoxx 50 | 6,034.95 | -0.26% |
| DAX | 25,104.70 | +0.05% |
| CAC 40 | 8,146.59 | -0.45% |
| EUR/USD | 1.16 | -0.08% |
| EUR/GBP | 0.87 | -0.05% |
| EUR/JPY | 185.89 | +0.14% |
| Gold | 4,553.60 | +1.75% |
| Brent Crude | 94.13 | -0.89% |
| Bitcoin | 70,167.45 | -4.64% |
| German 2Y Bund | - | - |
| German 10Y Bund | 3.00% | +2.97% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales Month-over-Month | -0.30 | -0.40 | -0.30 |
| Retail Sales Year-over-Year | -0.20 | - | -0.30 |
| S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Index | 51.70 | 52 | 51.20 |
| S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Index | 52.10 | 52 | 52.90 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year Preliminary | 2.80 | - | 3.50 |
German 10Y Bund Yield | Type: macro_line | Yield %: 2.996 (2026-04-01) | Range: -0.5386–2.996 | Trend(6pt): -0.4514,1.795,2.601,2.484,2.91,2.996
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unemployment Level Change | -62,700 | - | 23:00 |
| S&P Global Services PMI | 47.90 | 48 | 23:15 |
| S&P Global Services PMI | 49.80 | - | 23:45 |
| Industrial Production Month-over-Month | 1 | -0.20 | 22:45 |
| Trade Balance | -6,900m | -6,500m | 22:45 |
| Retail Sales Month-over-Month | 0.80 | 0.20 | 01:00 |
- German retail sales beat expectations while Dutch inflation jumped to 3.5% y/y
- Italian manufacturing PMI rose to 52.9 but Spanish PMI fell to 51.2
- German 10-year Bund yields climbed to 3.00% as markets priced higher ECB rates
Yesterday's Recap
German retail sales matched the prior print at -0.3% month-over-month, 0.1pp above the -0.4% consensus, while the year-over-year rate printed -0.3%. Spanish S&P Global manufacturing PMI missed at 51.2 versus 52.0 expected, whereas Italian manufacturing PMI beat at 52.9 against a 52.0 consensus. Dutch preliminary inflation accelerated to 3.5% year-over-year.
Equity markets closed mixed: Euro Stoxx 50 fell 0.26% to 6,034.95 and CAC 40 dropped 0.45%, but DAX rose 0.05%. EUR/USD eased 0.08% to 1.16. German 10-year Bund yields jumped 2.97% to 3.00%, reflecting firmer rate-hike expectations.
Gold rose 1.75% to 4,553.60 while Brent crude fell 0.89% to 94.13.
The Day Ahead
Spain will release unemployment level data and S&P Global services PMI this evening; Italian services PMI is also due. French industrial production and trade balance figures follow on June 4, together with Italian retail sales. Markets will watch whether services readings confirm the manufacturing divergence seen yesterday.
Any upside surprise in Spanish unemployment could reinforce recent labor-market resilience. Traders will also monitor French data for signs of cooling industrial momentum ahead of next week’s Eurozone releases.
Other Economic Notes
France secured €93 billion in new investment commitments at the Choose France summit, including €45 billion from Softbank for AI data centers. These inflows target digital infrastructure and could support medium-term productivity growth. Broader Eurozone inflation remains above the ECB’s target, with fuel costs adding fresh pressure across the largest economies.
Private-equity activity in France continues to shift toward growth-stage deals as Sagard restructures its local team.
Global Macro News
Canada’s Ksi Lisims LNG project signed a 20-year supply agreement with Germany’s SEFE, bolstering European energy security. Mexico’s addition to Brazil’s visa-free list may indirectly lift tourism-related demand for European carriers. <i>↓ p.2</i>
