Eurozone Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
ZEW Beat Lifts DAX as Wholesale Prices Fall
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Euro Stoxx 50 | 6,258.07 | +0.01% |
| DAX | 24,914.76 | +1.13% |
| CAC 40 | 8,444.47 | -0.03% |
| EUR/USD | 1.16 | +0.21% |
| EUR/GBP | 0.87 | +0.17% |
| EUR/JPY | 186.14 | +0.23% |
| Gold | 4,350.70 | +0.46% |
| Brent Crude | 77.82 | -1.44% |
| Bitcoin | 65,475.99 | -0.19% |
| German 2Y Bund | - | - |
| German 10Y Bund | 3.05% | +1.52% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wholesale Prices Month-over-Month | 2 | 0.80 | -0.60 |
| Wholesale Prices Year-over-Year | 6.30 | - | 5.90 |
| Trade Balance | 4,813m | 5,190m | 4,293m |
| ZEW Economic Sentiment Index | -10.20 | -6 | 10.50 |
Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment | Type: macro_line | Sentiment Index: -16.1 (2026-05-01) | Range: -28–-0.8 | Trend(6pt): -2.6,-28,-16.3,-11.3,-13.6,-16.1
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Headline Unemployment Rate | 3.90 | - | 20:30 |
| Producer Price Index Year-over-Year | 1.70 | 2.50 | 22:00 |
| Thursday (2026-06-18) | |||
| Headline Unemployment Rate | 3.90 | - | 20:30 |
- German ZEW Economic Sentiment jumped to 10.5, beating consensus by a wide margin and signalling improved business optimism.
- Wholesale price declines in Germany reinforced expectations for contained pipeline pressures ahead of tomorrow’s PPI release.
- Euro Stoxx 50 held flat while DAX rose 1.13 percent as investors positioned for steady ECB policy through year-end.
Yesterday's Recap
German wholesale prices fell 0.6 percent month-over-month against an expected 0.8 percent rise, while the year-over-year rate eased to 5.9 percent. Italy’s trade surplus narrowed to €4.293 billion, missing the €5.19 billion consensus. The standout release was Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, which soared to 10.5 from –10.2 and far exceeded the –6.0 forecast.
Equity markets reacted positively, with the DAX climbing 1.13 percent to 24,914.76 while the CAC 40 slipped 0.03 percent. The euro strengthened modestly, lifting EUR/USD to 1.16 and EUR/JPY to 186.14. German 10-year Bund yields rose 1.52 percent to 3.05 percent as the risk-on tone dominated fixed-income flows.
No ECB speakers commented during the session.
The Day Ahead
Dutch headline unemployment data are due this evening and are expected to remain near 3.9 percent. Attention will shift tomorrow to Germany’s producer price index, with the year-over-year rate forecast at 2.5 percent. Markets will parse any revisions to the flash HICP prints from France, Italy and Spain for confirmation of the 1.9 percent euro-area headline rate.
Limited central-bank speaking engagements are scheduled, keeping focus squarely on the data. OIS pricing continues to embed two further ECB cuts by December.
Other Economic Notes
Eurozone unemployment stands at 6.7 percent, providing room for gradual labour-market normalisation without immediate wage pressures. National fiscal plans remain divergent, with Germany prioritising debt-brake compliance while France and Italy signal higher defence outlays. Supply-chain indicators point to further disinflation in goods prices over the coming quarters.
Energy futures have stabilised following the Iran-related news flow, reducing near-term upside risks to the ECB’s inflation path.
Global Macro News
G7 leaders meeting in France are weighing fresh tariffs on subsidised Chinese exports that threaten European industrial margins. <i>↓ p.2</i>
