Eurozone Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Eurozone Inflation Cools Sharply in June
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Euro Stoxx 50 | 6,328.09 | +1.55% |
| DAX | 24,626.89 | -0.18% |
| CAC 40 | 8,403.99 | +0.44% |
| EUR/USD | 1.14 | -0.16% |
| EUR/GBP | 0.86 | -0.15% |
| EUR/JPY | 185.42 | +0.28% |
| Gold | 3,986.00 | -0.92% |
| Brent Crude | 72.99 | +0.10% |
| Bitcoin | 58,587.50 | +0.05% |
| German 2Y Bund | - | - |
| German 10Y Bund | 3.05% | +1.52% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month Preliminary | 0.10 | - | 0.60 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year Preliminary | 3.20 | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| Business Confidence Index | -3.70 | - | -2.40 |
| Retail Sales Month-over-Month | -0.40 | -0.10 | 1.10 |
| Retail Sales Year-over-Year | -0.60 | 0 | 1.80 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year Preliminary | 2.40 | 2.10 | 1.80 |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month Preliminary | 0.10 | 0 | -0.20 |
| Headline Unemployment Rate | 6.30 | 6.30 | 6.30 |
| Unemployed Persons Level | 3.0m | - | 3.0m |
| Unemployment Level Change | -12,000 | 10,000 | -1,000 |
German 10Y Yield | Type: macro_line | Yield %: 3.046 (2026-05-01) | Range: -0.5386–3.046 | Trend(6pt): -0.5386,2.187,2.102,2.405,3.001,3.046
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Index | - | 51 | 23:15 |
| S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Index | - | 52.60 | 23:45 |
| Unemployment Level Change | -36,300 | - | 23:00 |
| Headline Unemployment Rate | 5.10 | 5.10 | 00:00 |
| Industrial Production Month-over-Month | 0.10 | -0.30 | 22:45 |
| S&P Global Services PMI | - | 50.80 | 23:15 |
| S&P Global Services PMI | - | - | 23:45 |
| Retail Sales Month-over-Month | 0 | 0.10 | 00:00 |
- German June CPI fell to 2.3% y/y, below 2.6% consensus, while French print dropped to 1.8%.
- Italian inflation eased to 3.0% y/y and Spanish held at 3.2%, with German retail sales jumping 1.1% m/m.
- Euro Stoxx 50 rose 1.55% as softer prints trimmed ECB hike odds; German 10Y yield reached 3.05%.
Yesterday's Recap
German June headline inflation printed 2.3% y/y and -0.3% m/m, undershooting consensus, while core pressures also moderated. French inflation slowed to 1.8% y/y and -0.2% m/m, well below expectations. Italian flash CPI eased to 3.0% y/y and 0.0% m/m.
Spanish inflation held at 3.2% y/y but rose 0.6% m/m. German retail sales surged 1.1% m/m and 1.8% y/y, and unemployment stayed at 6.3% with a 1,000-person drop in jobless claims. Spanish business confidence improved to -2.4.
Equities showed mixed moves with Euro Stoxx 50 gaining 1.55% to 6,328.09, DAX slipping 0.18%, and CAC 40 rising 0.44%; EUR/USD fell 0.16% to 1.14 while the German 10Y Bund yield climbed 1.52% to 3.05%.
The Day Ahead
Eurozone June flash HICP is due, with markets focused on whether the downtrend in Germany and France extends to the aggregate print. Germany will release final unemployment figures and any revisions to June CPI. Italy and Spain are scheduled to publish industrial production data.
Netherlands inflation will provide an additional regional read. No ECB speakers are listed, leaving the HICP release as the dominant driver for Bund yields and EUR crosses.
Other Economic Notes
Private wealth in Germany expanded rapidly in 2025, adding 2.6 million millionaires amid divergent regional gains. France faces OECD pressure to address its second-highest euro-area public deficit after Belgium through sustained fiscal repair. Bundesbank is competing to manage Germany’s large pension assets, signaling institutional shifts in asset allocation.
Fintech Defacto is seeking a French banking license while eyeing expansion into Belgium and Germany to serve SME funding needs.
Global Macro News
Soft US PCE data overnight reinforced global rate-cut expectations and supported risk assets. Brent crude held near $72.99 after earlier China demand concerns weighed on prices. Gold declined 0.92% to $3,986 amid a stronger dollar tone.
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