Eurozone Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Spanish PMI Surges, Italian Jobless Rate Falls
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Euro Stoxx 50 | 6,360.47 | +1.24% |
| DAX | 25,814.54 | +0.91% |
| CAC 40 | 8,474.86 | +1.65% |
| EUR/USD | 1.14 | +0.55% |
| EUR/GBP | 0.86 | +0.01% |
| EUR/JPY | 184.56 | -0.19% |
| Gold | 4,187.30 | +1.81% |
| Brent Crude | 72.13 | +0.46% |
| Bitcoin | 62,538.62 | +1.71% |
| German 2Y Bund | - | - |
| German 10Y Bund | 3.05% | +1.52% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unemployment Level Change | -36,323 | -40,800 | -28,700 |
| Headline Unemployment Rate | 5.10 | 5.10 | 5 |
| Industrial Production Month-over-Month | 0.30 | -0.40 | -0.10 |
| S&P Global Services PMI | 50.10 | 50.90 | 54.20 |
| S&P Global Services PMI | 49.40 | - | 50.20 |
| Retail Sales Month-over-Month | 0 | 0.10 | 0.20 |
French Industrial Production YoY | Type: macro_line | Industrial Production YoY (%): 2.771 (2026-04-01) | Range: -1.842–3.379 | Trend(5pt): 1.771,-1.579,0.3142,0.137,2.771
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Factory Orders Month-over-Month | -3.80 | 1.20 | 02:00 |
| Industrial Production Month-over-Month | 0.40 | 0.20 | 02:00 |
| Trade Balance | -5,600m | -5,200m | 02:45 |
| Trade Balance | 14,500m | 14,000m | 02:00 |
| Exports Month-over-Month | 0.90 | - | 02:00 |
| Industrial Production Month-over-Month | 0.50 | 0.10 | 04:00 |
- Spanish services PMI jumped to 54.2 in June, well above consensus, signaling stronger activity in the services sector.
- Italian headline unemployment rate declined to a fresh low of 5.0 percent, beating expectations and highlighting labor-market resilience.
- Euro Stoxx 50 rose 1.24 percent while the euro gained 0.55 percent against the dollar amid broadly positive regional data.
Yesterday's Recap
Spanish unemployment level change came in at -28,700, missing the consensus decline of 40,800 but still marking continued labor-market improvement. Italy’s headline unemployment rate fell to 5.0 percent from 5.1 percent, the lowest reading on record for the country. French industrial production contracted 0.1 percent month-over-month, softer than the expected 0.4 percent drop.
Spanish services PMI surged to 54.2 against a 50.9 consensus, while Italian services PMI rose to 50.2. Italian retail sales increased 0.2 percent, exceeding the 0.1 percent forecast. Equity markets responded positively, with the Euro Stoxx 50 advancing 1.24 percent, the DAX gaining 0.91 percent and the CAC 40 climbing 1.65 percent.
The euro strengthened 0.55 percent versus the dollar to 1.14, while the German 10-year Bund yield rose 1.52 percent to 3.05 percent.
The Day Ahead
Germany releases June factory orders and July industrial production figures, both expected to show modest rebounds after recent weakness. France will publish its June trade balance, with the deficit projected to narrow slightly. Germany’s July trade balance and export data follow later in the week and carry high market impact.
Italy reports July industrial production on 10 July. Markets will monitor whether the string of better-than-expected services readings extends into manufacturing surveys. No ECB speakers are scheduled, leaving the focus squarely on the national data prints.
Other Economic Notes
Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s coalition approved €10 billion in annual income-tax relief and broader pension and sick-leave reforms aimed at lifting German growth potential. North Rhine-Westphalia inflation eased to 2.1 percent in June, adding to evidence of cooling price pressures across Germany. France’s finance minister signaled a 2027 budget path that would bring the deficit below 5 percent of GDP, reinforcing fiscal consolidation efforts.
Italian unemployment at 5 percent now sits well below both the French rate of 8.1 percent and the eurozone average.
