Eurozone Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
German Retail Sales Slump, Spanish PMI Beats
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Euro Stoxx 50 | 6,405.46 | +0.75% |
| DAX | 25,629.24 | +0.07% |
| CAC 40 | 8,594.83 | +1.00% |
| EUR/USD | 1.15 | +0.06% |
| EUR/GBP | 0.86 | -0.01% |
| EUR/JPY | 180.54 | -2.19% |
| Gold | 4,114.60 | +1.62% |
| Brent Crude | 83.62 | -7.21% |
| Bitcoin | 62,560.86 | -0.32% |
| German 2Y Bund | - | - |
| German 10Y Bund | 2.97% | -2.51% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales Month-over-Month | 1.10 | -0.50 | -1.10 |
| Retail Sales Year-over-Year | 1.80 | - | -0.20 |
| S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Index | 49.70 | 50 | 50.20 |
French Consumer Confidence | Type: macro_line | Index: -19.3 (2026-06-01) | Range: -22.3–-2.8 | Trend(6pt): -2.8,-18.8,-11.7,-14.8,-21.1,-19.3
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Index | - | 52.50 | 23:45 |
| Unemployment Level Change | -28,700 | -20,300 | 23:00 |
| Retail Sales Month-over-Month | 0.20 | 0.10 | 00:00 |
| Industrial Production Month-over-Month | -0.10 | 0.30 | 22:45 |
| S&P Global Services PMI Index | - | 54.40 | 23:15 |
| S&P Global Services PMI Index | - | - | 23:45 |
| Factory Orders Month-over-Month | 1.90 | 0.80 | 22:00 |
| Industrial Production Month-over-Month | -0.30 | 0.30 | 00:00 |
| Unemployment Rate | 8.10 | - | 21:30 |
| Trade Balance | 19,100m | 16,700m | 22:00 |
- German retail sales contracted sharply in July, missing forecasts and signaling consumer weakness.
- Spanish manufacturing PMI rose above 50, pointing to modest expansion in the sector.
- Euro Stoxx 50 gained 0.75% while German 10-year Bund yields fell 2.51% to 2.97%.
Yesterday's Recap
German retail sales fell 1.1% month-over-month in July against a consensus of -0.5%, with the year-over-year reading dropping to -0.2%. The data underscore softening household demand in Europe's largest economy. Spanish manufacturing PMI edged higher to 50.2 from 49.7, clearing the consensus of 50.0 and indicating a return to expansion.
Equity markets responded positively, with the Euro Stoxx 50 rising 0.75% to 6,405.46, the CAC 40 advancing 1.00% to 8,594.83, and the DAX adding 0.07% to 25,629.24. The German 10-year Bund yield declined 2.51% to 2.97%, while EUR/USD ticked up 0.06% to 1.15. Brent crude fell 7.21% to 83.62 amid broader commodity weakness.
Gold rose 1.62% to 4,114.60 as a hedge.
The Day Ahead
Italian manufacturing PMI is due later today, with markets expecting a reading near 52.5. Spanish unemployment level change and Italian retail sales follow, offering fresh labor and consumption signals. French industrial production is scheduled for release tomorrow morning, while Spanish services PMI will provide insight into the services sector.
German factory orders and trade balance data on Thursday will test export momentum. Italian industrial production and French unemployment rate round out the week. These releases will shape views on Q3 growth across the four largest Eurozone economies, with particular attention to whether the German weakness spills over into industrial and external demand indicators.
Other Economic Notes
Eurozone CPI held at 2.90% year-over-year in July, aligning with staff projections and leaving the deposit rate at 2.25%. Unemployment stood at 6.30% in June, the lowest level in the series history. French GDP rebounded 0.2% in Q2, supported by stronger exports, while ongoing wildfires in southern France and Greece highlight climate-related fiscal risks.
Bund yields remain sensitive to any inflation reacceleration that could delay further easing. The combination of steady inflation and record-low unemployment supports a cautious policy stance, even as national data show divergence between manufacturing resilience in Spain and consumer softness in Germany.
