Eurozone Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
German Retail Slump Offsets Spanish PMI Gain
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Euro Stoxx 50 | 6,486.70 | +0.94% |
| DAX | 25,629.24 | +0.07% |
| CAC 40 | 8,666.63 | +0.61% |
| EUR/USD | 1.15 | -0.14% |
| EUR/GBP | 0.86 | +0.13% |
| EUR/JPY | 181.47 | -0.24% |
| Gold | 4,144.00 | +2.73% |
| Brent Crude | 79.16 | -5.50% |
| Bitcoin | 64,000.17 | +0.85% |
| German 2Y Bund | - | - |
| German 10Y Bund | 2.97% | -2.51% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales Month-over-Month | 1.20 | -0.50 | -1.10 |
| Retail Sales Year-over-Year | 2.10 | - | -0.20 |
| S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Index | 49.70 | 50 | 50.20 |
| S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Index | 52.20 | 52.30 | 51.30 |
| Unemployment Level Change | -28,700 | -20,300 | 19,500 |
German 10Y Yield | Type: macro_line | Yield %: 2.97 (2026-06-01) | Range: -0.3843–3.046 | Trend(6pt): -0.3627,2.066,2.175,2.741,3.046,2.97
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales Month-over-Month | 0.20 | 0.10 | 00:00 |
| Industrial Production Month-over-Month | -0.10 | 0.20 | 22:45 |
| S&P Global Services PMI Index | - | 55.30 | 23:15 |
| S&P Global Services PMI Index | - | - | 23:45 |
| Factory Orders Month-over-Month | 1.90 | 0.20 | 22:00 |
| Industrial Production Month-over-Month | -0.30 | 0.20 | 00:00 |
| Unemployment Rate | 8.10 | - | 21:30 |
| Trade Balance | 19,100m | 17,400m | 22:00 |
| Exports Month-over-Month | 0.90 | - | 22:00 |
| Industrial Production Month-over-Month | 0.90 | 0.30 | 22:00 |
- German retail sales contracted sharply, missing forecasts and signaling consumer weakness.
- Spanish manufacturing PMI edged above 50 while Italian reading fell below consensus.
- Equities advanced modestly with Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.94 percent as Bund yields declined.
Yesterday's Recap
German July retail sales fell 1.1 percent month-over-month against a consensus decline of 0.5 percent, while the year-over-year print turned negative at minus 0.2 percent. Spanish S&P Global manufacturing PMI rose to 50.2, beating the 50.0 consensus, whereas Italian manufacturing PMI slipped to 51.3 from 52.2 and missed expectations. Spanish unemployment rose by 19,500 persons, reversing prior declines and exceeding forecasts.
Euro Stoxx 50 gained 0.94 percent to 6,486.70 and CAC 40 rose 0.61 percent, while DAX edged up 0.07 percent. German 10-year Bund yields fell 2.51 percent to 2.97 percent. EUR/USD declined 0.14 percent to 1.15 amid broader dollar strength.
Brent crude dropped 5.50 percent to 79.16 dollars per barrel on demand concerns.
The Day Ahead
Italy releases June retail sales month-over-month at midnight, with markets expecting a modest 0.1 percent gain. French industrial production for June is due at 22:45 ET, forecast to rise 0.2 percent after last month’s contraction. Spanish and Italian S&P Global services PMI readings follow at 23:15 and 23:45 ET respectively.
Germany’s June factory orders, due 5 August at 22:00 ET, carry high weight given the 0.2 percent consensus. Italian industrial production and French unemployment rate complete the calendar on 6 August. Any material deviation in German orders or euro-area retail sales could shift front-end Bund yields and EUR crosses.
Other Economic Notes
Eurozone unemployment stood at 6.30 percent in June, providing a stable labor backdrop despite mixed national PMI prints. Eurozone CPI reached 2.90 percent year-over-year at end-July, keeping the ECB deposit rate at 2.25 percent in focus for any further adjustments. Capital Markets Union discussions among EU finance ministers signal potential regulatory easing that could support cross-border equity flows.
French fiscal caution from President Macron adds pressure on OAT-Bund spreads ahead of autumn budget negotiations. Broader growth signals remain tentative as German consumer data disappoints while southern European manufacturing shows resilience.
