Eurozone Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Bund Yields Firm as France Fiscal Focus Intensifies
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Euro Stoxx 50 | 6,126.73 | -0.87% |
| DAX | 24,852.83 | -1.00% |
| CAC 40 | 7,729.69 | -0.51% |
| EUR/USD | 1.12 | +0.30% |
| EUR/GBP | 0.85 | +0.05% |
| EUR/JPY | 177.54 | +0.28% |
| Gold | 4,202.10 | +1.08% |
| Brent Crude | 102.88 | -1.34% |
| Bitcoin | 82,177.14 | -1.32% |
| German 2Y Bund | 3.08% | +2 bp |
| German 10Y Bund | 3.54% | +2 bp |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P Global Services PMI | 57.80 | 56.80 | 58.30 |
| S&P Global Services PMI | 55.20 | - | 51.70 |
| Factory Orders Month-over-Month | 3.20 | -1 | -10.60 |
| Industrial Production Month-over-Month | -0.60 | 0.30 | -0.30 |
| Industrial Production Month-over-Month | -1.20 | 0.50 | 2 |
| Trade Balance | -6,600m | -6,500m | -6,100m |
| Trade Balance | 21,600m | 19,000m | 19,500m |
| Exports Month-over-Month | -0.50 | - | -0.80 |
Germany 10Y Bund Yield | Type: macro_line | German 10Y Yield (%): 3.18 (2026-08-01) | Range: -0.3843–3.18 | Trend(6pt): -0.3136,2.193,2.349,2.563,3.07,3.18
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial Production Month-over-Month | 0.70 | 0 | 04:00 |
- German Bunds led a modest rise in core yields, with the 10-year up 2 bp to 3.54% and the 2-year at 3.08%, as equities slipped across the Eurozone.
- France remained the epicentre of bond-market anxiety, with OAT-Bund spreads at their widest in decades and euro-area ministers urging Paris to pass its 2027 budget.
- German data painted a mixed industrial picture: factory orders plunged 10.6% m/m while industrial production rebounded 2.0% m/m.
Yesterday's Recap
Eurozone equities closed lower, with the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.87% to 6,126.73, the DAX off 1.00% at 24,852.83, and the CAC 40 easing 0.51% to 7,729.69. Germany's trade surplus came in at €19.5 billion, undershooting the €19 billion consensus is not a miss — the surplus exceeded consensus — as exports fell 0.8% m/m after a 0.5% prior decline. The French trade deficit narrowed to €6.1 billion, better than the €6.5 billion consensus.
German industrial production jumped 2.0% m/m, well above the 0.5% consensus and reversing the prior 1.2% decline, offering a rare bright spot for the region's largest economy. However, German factory orders collapsed 10.6% m/m earlier in the week, a stark reversal from the 3.2% prior gain. Spanish services PMI beat at 58.3 from 57.8 previously, while Italian services PMI disappointed at 51.7 versus 55.2.
French industrial production slipped 0.3% m/m against a 0.3% growth consensus. Bund yields firmed 2 bp across the curve, with the 10-year at 3.54% and the 2-year at 3.08%, while EUR/USD gained 0.30% to 1.12.
The Day Ahead
Italy's industrial production is the sole scheduled Eurozone release, due at 04:00 ET with consensus at 0.0% m/m following the prior 0.7% gain. Attention will remain on French fiscal developments after euro-area finance ministers pressed Paris to adopt its 2027 budget to calm bond markets. Investors will also track any further ECB commentary following policymaker Dolenc's Reuters interview and Cipollone's remarks on the digital euro.
With no major data, positioning adjustments into the weekend may dominate, particularly in French OATs where spreads sit at multi-decade wides. Equity markets will look for direction from the previous session's risk-off tone. The absence of tier-one prints puts the onus on political headlines.
Other Economic Notes
Germany more than doubled its 2026 growth forecast after a stronger-than-expected first half, citing robust exports and a surge in government spending — a notable contrast to the factory orders slump. ↓ p.2
