Saudi Non-Oil Drive Accelerates

Market Snapshot

Asset	Level	Change
Saudi Aramco	27.22	-0.15%
MSCI Saudi	39.08	+0.23%
MSCI UAE	19.46	+2.05%
DFM General	5,870.62	+0.97%
MSCI Qatar	19.25	+0.68%
MSCI Kuwait	38.87	+0.78%
Brent Crude	102.43	-2.75%
WTI Crude	97.31	+3.08%
Gold	4,683.70	-0.82%
USD/SAR	3.75	+0.01%
USD/AED	3.67	+0.00%
USD/KWD	0.31	-0.31%
Bitcoin	76,875.27	-2.27%

Prior Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Actual
No events available

Today's Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Time
GDP Growth Year-over-Year Preliminary	5	-	22:00

Saudi Vision 2030 advances with non-oil investments projected at SAR 797bn in 2025, boosting economy share to 30%.
GCC equities mixed; MSCI UAE surges 2.05% amid broader market gains, while Brent crude dips 2.75%.
Geopolitical tensions rise with drone attacks on Kuwaiti borders condemned by Qatar.

Yesterday's Recap

GCC markets showed mixed performance on April 26, with Saudi Arabia's MSCI index rising 0.23% driven by modest gains in energy stocks, though Aramco shares fell 0.15% to 27.22 amid lower Brent prices. UAE equities outperformed, as the MSCI UAE climbed 2.05% and DFM General advanced 0.97%, supported by positive sentiment in real estate and banking sectors. Qatar and Kuwait saw moderate upticks, with MSCI Qatar up 0.68% and MSCI Kuwait gaining 0.78%, reflecting steady investor confidence despite global oil volatility.

No major macroeconomic data releases occurred across the GCC, but Saudi non-oil exports rose 15% in February to $8.27bn, underscoring diversification efforts under Vision 2030. Broader news highlighted Saudi Arabia's tourism boom, targeting 123m visitors and $1.31tr GDP in the Vision 2030 final phase. Geopolitical notes included condemnations of a drone attack on Kuwaiti border posts from Iraq, adding to regional security concerns without immediate market disruption.

Overall, oil price divergence—with Brent down 2.75% to 102.43 and WTI up 3.08% to 97.31—kept fiscal focus on Saudi and UAE budgets.

The Day Ahead

Attention turns to Saudi Arabia's preliminary GDP growth year-over-year data release on April 29 at 22:00 ET, with previous reading at 5% and no consensus forecast, potentially signaling non-oil sector strength amid Vision 2030 progress. No other GCC-wide events are scheduled for April 28, allowing markets to digest ongoing geopolitical developments like the Kuwait border incident. UAE investors may monitor biosecurity cooperation updates following the MOCCAE-ADQCC agreement, which could bolster agricultural and environmental sectors.

Qatar's diplomatic engagements, including talks with Egypt and Iran on regional tensions, might influence sentiment in energy markets. Broader GCC focus remains on oil dynamics, with any OPEC+ signals ahead of reviews impacting fiscal outlooks. Emirates' resumption of flights to Kuwait and Oman from May could support tourism recovery in those nations.

Heavy rains forecast across Saudi Arabia through the week may affect local operations.

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Other Economic Notes

Saudi Arabia's emphasis on non-oil diversification is gaining traction, with SME financing and digital health innovations positioned as core drivers of economic infrastructure. UAE's food security initiatives signal a 'golden age' through sustainable development authority efforts, aligning with broader GCC goals to reduce oil dependency. Regional tourism revolutions, particularly in Saudi Arabia growing at nearly twice the global rate, alongside Qatar's camel racing events, highlight cultural and leisure sectors as emerging non-oil revenue streams.

Non-oil investments in Saudi Arabia are expected to jump to SAR 797bn in 2025, raising their contribution to the national economy to 30%. The private sector is set to take the wheel of Saudi Arabia's economy under Vision 2030, with progress highlighted in the 2025 annual report.

Global Macro News

Global oil markets exhibited volatility, with Brent crude falling 2.75% to 102.43 amid ample supply concerns, while WTI rose 3.08% to 97.31, pressuring GCC fiscal balances reliant on hydrocarbon revenues. Geopolitical risks escalated in the Middle East, including a drone attack on Kuwaiti border posts from Iraq condemned by Qatar, and Egypt's foreign minister engaging with Qatari and Iranian counterparts to ease regional tensions. LNG developments globally, such as Pakistan's spot market purchase to ease energy shortages, underscore shifting energy dynamics that could benefit Qatar's export position.

Gold prices dipped 0.82% to 4,683.70 as the USD firmed, offering a hedge for GCC investors amid currency pegs. Broader tensions, including Egypt-Qatar-Iran diplomatic calls for de-escalation, may ease regional pressures but highlight vulnerabilities in GCC trade routes. Cryptocurrency fluctuations, with Bitcoin down 2.27% to 76,875.27, reflect softer risk appetite that could spill into GCC equity sentiment.

UAE President met India's NSA in Abu Dhabi, potentially strengthening bilateral ties. Iraq pipeline to Saudi Arabia faces major hurdles, impacting energy infrastructure plans.

GCC Central Banks Watch

GCC central banks maintained alignment with the US Federal Reserve's policy stance, given the USD pegs across most members, with interbank rates like SAIBOR and EIBOR holding steady amid unchanged FX reserves. Saudi Arabia's SAMA focused on peg stability, with USD/SAR at 3.75 showing minimal 0.01% fluctuation, supported by adequate reserves despite oil price dips. UAE's CBUAE echoed this coordination, keeping USD/AED pegged at 3.67 with no change, while monitoring non-oil growth to ensure liquidity amid diversification pushes.

Qatar's QCB and Bahrain's CBB emphasized reserve adequacy for their USD pegs, with no divergences noted, though global energy shifts could prompt future adjustments. (cont...)

Continuation

GCC Central Banks Watch (continued)

Kuwait's CBK managed its basket-pegged dinar, seeing a 0.31% decline in USD/KWD to 0.31, reflecting slight basket dynamics without major policy shifts. Oman's CBO continued rate synchronization with the Fed, focusing on fiscal buffers from oil revenues to counter any peg pressures. Overall, no rate changes were signaled, but interbank rate vigilance persists amid geopolitical risks and Fed trajectory.

GCC Macro Daily(Beta Mode)