Oil Rally Lifts Aramco Amid Steady GCC Markets

Market Snapshot

Asset	Level	Change
Saudi Aramco	26.86	+1.36%
MSCI Saudi	36.97	-0.38%
MSCI UAE	19.08	-0.37%
DFM General	5,990.88	-0.18%
MSCI Qatar	17.76	+0.05%
MSCI Kuwait	36.23	+0.10%
Brent Crude	85.91	+3.13%
WTI Crude	80.21	+2.65%
Gold	4,043.90	+1.17%
USD/SAR	3.76	+2.99%
USD/AED	3.67	+0.03%
USD/KWD	0.31	+0.05%
Bitcoin	64,568.93	+3.74%

Prior Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Actual
No events available

Today's Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Time
No events available

Saudi Aramco gains 1.36% as Brent jumps 3.13% to $85.91 on supply concerns
UAE condemns Houthi attacks on Saudi; regional missile threats emerge
Saudi advances AI and space ties with China while presenting UN sustainability review

Yesterday's Recap

Saudi equity markets showed resilience despite modest MSCI Saudi declines of 0.38%, with Aramco shares advancing on stronger realised oil prices and downstream margins. UAE benchmarks eased, with MSCI UAE falling 0.37% and the DFM General Index down 0.18% as real-estate offsets limited banking gains. Qatar and Kuwait equities posted small advances of 0.05% and 0.10% respectively amid stable LNG contract flows.

Brent crude surged 3.13% to $85.91 per barrel while WTI rose 2.65%, reflecting heightened supply-risk premia from Yemen tensions and Iranian naval activity near the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia presented its third voluntary national review on sustainable development goals at the UN, linking progress directly to Vision 2030 targets. The UAE informed OPEC of an 80% month-on-month oil production increase, citing workarounds around regional disruptions.

Fitch affirmed Saudi Arabia’s top sovereign rating, underscoring fiscal buffers that shielded the economy from recent conflict spillovers. Gold climbed 1.17% to $4,043.90 on safe-haven demand, while Bitcoin rose 3.74% to $64,568.93. USD/SAR held at 3.76 and USD/AED at 3.67, with regional FX pegs showing minimal movement.

The Day Ahead

No major data releases are scheduled across the GCC today or tomorrow. Markets will monitor OPEC+ compliance signals and any escalation in Red Sea or Hormuz shipping risks that could further support crude prices. Saudi diversification projects, including PIF green-hydrogen initiatives, continue to advance without interruption.

UAE solar and LNG expansion pipelines remain on track, with QatarEnergy’s North Field South Phase 2 FID already confirmed. Regional equity volumes are expected to stay average absent fresh catalysts. Sovereign CDS spreads and interbank rates should hold steady given unchanged geopolitical risk premia overnight.

Contractor qualification drives in Saudi Arabia, now encompassing up to 117,000 firms, are accelerating project execution under the current five-year plan.

Other Economic Notes

Saudi non-oil PMI strength and UAE expansionary readings continue to signal durable private-sector momentum outside hydrocarbons. Fiscal buffers in Riyadh have proven effective at absorbing external shocks while maintaining Vision 2030 capital expenditure. <i>↓ p.2</i>

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Other Economic Notes (continued)

Bahrain’s modest Q1 deficit narrowing and Oman’s steady reform trajectory reinforce the broader GCC shift toward sustainable revenue diversification. Regional refinery utilisation near 88% supports downstream integration goals across Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Indonesia and Saudi Arabia expanded transport-sector cooperation, while Keeta launched a whitepaper at LEAP East exploring the future of Saudi Arabia’s digital economy.

Saudi Arabia evolving from driving growth to exporting development knowledge was highlighted by the World Bank.

Global Macro News

Elevated US-Iran tensions and Houthi threats have tightened global energy supply perceptions, pushing Brent above $85 and supporting GCC fiscal balances. Asian demand remains firm, offsetting softer European readings and keeping OPEC+ quota discipline in focus. Gold’s 1.17% rise to $4,043.90 reflects safe-haven flows amid the same geopolitical backdrop.

Bitcoin’s 3.74% gain to $64,568.93 shows limited spillover into risk assets outside traditional energy plays. European airline advisories to avoid UAE, Qatar and Gulf airspace highlight secondary commercial costs from the current standoff. Russian refining output at multi-year lows adds further upward pressure on global product cracks, indirectly benefiting GCC export margins.

Fed policy expectations continue to anchor dollar strength, with all GCC pegs except Kuwait’s basket remaining mechanically aligned.

GCC Central Banks Watch

SAMA maintained its policy rate in line with the Fed, preserving the USD/SAR peg at 3.76 with no deviation observed. CBUAE kept the EIBOR framework unchanged, supporting the USD/AED rate at 3.67 amid steady banking liquidity. QCB held its benchmark steady, with interbank rates showing no pressure from regional events.

CBK continued to manage the dinar’s basket peg, with USD/KWD at 0.31 reflecting minor basket rebalancing rather than USD-specific moves. CBO and CBB likewise held rates, their FX reserves remaining ample relative to import cover and external debt metrics. No divergence in rate paths has emerged among the six central banks, as all remain constrained by dollar-pegged regimes and coordinated liquidity management.

Interbank spreads across SAIBOR and EIBOR stayed within recent averages, indicating orderly transmission of global funding conditions.

GCC Macro Daily(Beta Mode)