GCC Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Saudi Oil Exports Surge Despite Tensions
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Saudi Aramco | 26.84 | +0.98% |
| MSCI Saudi | 37.07 | -0.11% |
| MSCI UAE | 18.86 | -0.11% |
| DFM General | 5,895.93 | -0.26% |
| MSCI Qatar | 17.53 | +0.29% |
| MSCI Kuwait | 35.92 | -0.00% |
| Brent Crude | 86.51 | -10.61% |
| WTI Crude | 80.76 | -9.57% |
| Gold | 4,042.10 | -0.63% |
| USD/SAR | 3.75 | +2.90% |
| USD/AED | 3.67 | +0.03% |
| USD/KWD | 0.31 | -0.61% |
| Bitcoin | 63,115.68 | -3.40% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
10-Year Treasury Yield | Type: macro_line | Percent: 4.69 (2026-07-24) | Range: 1.19–4.98 | Trend(6pt): 1.28,4.04,4.14,4.32,4.71,4.69
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP Growth Year-over-Year Preliminary | 3 | - | 22:00 |
- Saudi trade surplus widens to $6.9bn as oil exports rise nearly 20%
- Brent crude falls 10.6% to $86.51 while Aramco gains 0.98%
- Regional equities mixed with MSCI Saudi and UAE both down 0.11%
Yesterday's Recap
Saudi Arabia reported a sharp rebound in oil exports that lifted the May trade surplus to $6.9bn. The kingdom also recorded $3.5bn in POS transactions, with freight and courier sectors showing particular strength. Security forces foiled a drone attack attributed to Iran-backed groups, while Houthi rebels claimed a separate rocket strike and warned of further escalation that could damage the Saudi economy.
Equity markets reflected these cross-currents: Saudi Aramco rose 0.98% to 26.84, yet the MSCI Saudi index slipped 0.11% to 37.07. The DFM General index fell 0.26% to 5,895.93 and MSCI UAE declined 0.11%. Brent crude dropped sharply to 86.51, pressuring fiscal expectations across the GCC.
Qatar’s MSCI index edged up 0.29% while Kuwait remained flat. Gold eased 0.63% to 4,042.10 and Bitcoin fell 3.40% to 63,115.68. USD/SAR rose 2.90% to 3.75 amid the moves.
The Day Ahead
Saudi Arabia will release its GDP growth year-over-year preliminary reading on 29 July at 22:00 ET, with markets watching for signs of non-oil momentum. No major data releases are scheduled for the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman or Bahrain tomorrow. Regional central banks are expected to maintain current policy settings ahead of the next Fed decision.
Investors will monitor any updates on OPEC+ compliance and voluntary cuts through September. Flight disruptions and aviation warnings for UAE, Bahrain, Qatar and Kuwait airspace remain in force until 31 August. Brent and WTI both posted steep losses yesterday, with WTI settling at 80.76 after a 9.57% decline, while MSCI Kuwait held steady at 35.92.
Other Economic Notes
Saudi Arabia continues to advance Vision 2030 diversification through pharmaceutical and waste-to-energy projects with Uzbekistan and ACWA Power, including a $260 million waste initiative. Qatar launched a diamond exchange to broaden financial services beyond hydrocarbons. Regional refinery utilisation stayed near 88%, supporting downstream revenues despite softer crude prices.
Sovereign CDS spreads across the GCC showed minimal movement, reflecting contained risk premia. UAE tourism and real-estate sectors drew attention amid public holidays and Emirates upgrades, while Dubai Police expanded doorstep delivery for lost-and-found items. Abu Dhabi Finance Week is set to return in December as the capital targets a larger global finance role.
