GCC Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Houthi Strikes Test Saudi Non-Oil Growth
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Saudi Aramco | 26.00 | -0.31% |
| MSCI Saudi | 34.72 | +0.29% |
| MSCI UAE | 19.46 | -1.02% |
| MSCI Qatar | 16.31 | -0.07% |
| MSCI Kuwait | 35.65 | -0.00% |
| Brent Crude | 110.52 | -2.95% |
| WTI Crude | 101.82 | +1.92% |
| Gold | 4,074.60 | +0.00% |
| USD/SAR | 3.75 | +3.26% |
| USD/AED | 3.67 | +0.03% |
| USD/KWD | 0.31 | +0.14% |
| Bitcoin | 79,931.74 | -1.08% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
USD/SAR Exchange Rate (PEG - CRITICAL) | Type: macro_line | USD/SAR Exchange Rate (PEG - CRITICAL): 3.751 (2026-10-28) | Range: 3.615–3.792 | Trend(5pt): 3.75,3.754,3.746,3.746,3.751
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP Growth Year-over-Year Preliminary | -4.70 | - | 01:00 |
- Saudi refinery attack and Houthi drone incursions revive Gulf supply-risk premium, with Brent and WTI diverging sharply on the session.
- Saudi Arabia's preliminary Q3 GDP print lands Sunday, with the non-oil economy now the focal point after conflict-driven disruption.
- Kuwait tightens regional posture with diplomatic summons and new excise tax plan as Gulf sovereigns coordinate on security.
Yesterday's Recap
Saudi Arabia dominated the Gulf macro tape as Houthi attacks on the kingdom's southern region and a refinery strike refocused markets on the non-oil economy's vulnerability. Air defences destroyed four Houthi drones targeting the south, and the US embassy in Riyadh ordered non-emergency staff to depart, underscoring escalation risk. Brent crude fell 2.95% to $110.52 while WTI rose 1.92% to $101.82 — an unusual divergence likely reflecting contract-specific flows around the refinery disruption.
Saudi equities were mixed: MSCI Saudi added 0.29% to 34.72 while Saudi Aramco slipped 0.31% to SAR 26.00. UAE markets bore the brunt of risk-off, with MSCI UAE down 1.02% to 19.46, while Qatar (-0.07%) and Kuwait (flat) held steady. The USD/SAR quote at 3.75 showed a 3.26% move, a reminder that peg prints can reflect fixing conventions rather than true depreciation.
The Day Ahead
The calendar is thin, with Saudi Arabia's GDP Growth Year-over-Year Preliminary for Q3 scheduled for 01:00 ET on November 1 — technically outside today's window but the dominant event risk for the week. Consensus is not yet published, and the previous print stood at -4.7%, so the release will be scrutinised for whether non-oil activity has stabilised after conflict-related disruption. No other GCC releases are scheduled today or tomorrow.
Traders will therefore trade headlines around Houthi activity, Red Sea shipping and any OPEC+ commentary. Watch Saudi CDS and the Riyadh Tadawul open for the first read on sentiment.
Other Economic Notes
Kuwait approved an excise tax plan targeting energy drinks, tobacco and sugary drinks, a modest but symbolically important step in broadening non-oil revenue. Kuwait also began demolition of 263 properties over building violations, part of an urban-renewal push. Saudi Aramco is offering European buyers additional spot oil cargoes for this month and next, signalling supply flexibility even as export routes face security risk.
The Philippines confirmed talks with Saudi Arabia on oil storage, reinforcing the kingdom's role as a regional energy hub. Qatar's Emir held talks with Iran's president on de-escalation, keeping Doha's diplomatic channel open.
