Greater China Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
PBoC Holds, Caixin PMI Surges
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Shanghai Composite | 4,124.19 | +0.38% |
| CSI 300 | 4,660.44 | +0.27% |
| Hang Seng | 25,757.29 | +1.72% |
| TAIEX | 33,599.54 | -0.22% |
| USD/CNY | 6.90 | -0.01% |
| USD/HKD | 7.82 | +0.03% |
| Copper | 5.81 | +0.94% |
| Brent Crude | 92.69 | +8.52% |
| Gold | 5,158.70 | +1.84% |
| Bitcoin | 66,973.62 | -0.44% |
| China 2Y Govt Yield | - | - |
| China 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| NBS Manufacturing PMI | 49.30 | 49.10 | 49 |
| NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI | 49.40 | 49.80 | 49.50 |
| RatingDog Manufacturing PMI | 50.30 | 50.20 | 52.10 |
| RatingDog Services PMI | 52.30 | 52.30 | 56.70 |
China Credit vs Broad Money | Type: macro_line | Credit Conditions: -1.642 (2026-01-01) | Range: -3.671–13.22 | Trend(6pt): 13.22,-3.432,4.15,-1.829,-1.558,-1.642
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
- Mainland China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI beat expectations at 52.1, signaling expansion, while NBS PMI slipped to 49.0 amid weak demand.
- Hong Kong equities rallied 1.72% on positive trade tech news, contrasting Taiwan's slight dip amid geopolitical tensions.
- PBoC kept lending rates steady, supporting yuan strength as global commodities like Brent crude jumped 8.52%.
Yesterday's Recap
Mainland China's economic data showed mixed signals, with the NBS Manufacturing PMI edging down to 49.0 from 49.3, indicating continued contraction in factory activity due to subdued external demand, while the NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI rose slightly to 49.5 from 49.4, reflecting modest services stabilization post-Lunar New Year. In contrast, the Caixin Manufacturing PMI surged to 52.1, exceeding consensus of 50.2, driven by robust new orders and output in export-oriented sectors, and the Caixin Services PMI climbed to 56.7, highlighting strong domestic consumption recovery. Mainland equities responded positively, with the Shanghai Composite gaining 0.38% to 4,124.19 and the CSI 300 up 0.27% to 4,660.44, buoyed by optimism over manufacturing rebound and commodity price support.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng index advanced 1.72% to 25,757.29, fueled by blockchain trade initiatives with Shanghai and budget priorities for AI innovation, though local news on security measures and robberies added minor volatility. Taiwan's TAIEX dipped 0.22% to 33,599.54, pressured by warnings on Chinese military threats to semiconductor supply chains and global trade frictions. Currency markets remained stable, with USD/CNY easing 0.01% to 6.90 on PBoC signals for yuan tolerance, and USD/HKD ticking up 0.03% to 7.82 within the peg.
Copper, a key China growth proxy, rose 0.94% to 5.81, aligning with PMI strength, while no changes were reported in China government bond yields.
The Day Ahead
No major economic data releases are scheduled for mainland China, Hong Kong, or Taiwan today, allowing markets to digest yesterday's PMI figures and ongoing "two sessions" priorities in Beijing. Attention may shift to any State Council signals on property sector support or rare earths policy following Li's comments. Tomorrow also lacks key events, but cross-strait developments could emerge from the Taiwan Affairs Work Conference emphasis on the 1992 Consensus.
Investors will monitor global commodity moves, such as Brent crude's volatility, for impacts on Greater China's import-dependent economies. Geopolitical updates, including Taiwan's stance on Chinese intimidation, may influence TAIEX sentiment in thin trading.
Other Economic Notes
Broader themes in Greater China highlight resilience in services and manufacturing amid deflationary pressures, with China's CPI YoY at -0.10% underscoring weak consumer prices despite PMI gains. (cont...)
