Greater China Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
China Rebounds Amid Iran War Risks
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Shanghai Composite | 4,067.96 | -0.67% |
| CSI 300 | 4,665.15 | -0.09% |
| Hang Seng | 25,868.54 | +0.13% |
| TAIEX | 33,836.57 | +1.48% |
| USD/CNY | 6.89 | -0.15% |
| USD/HKD | 7.84 | +0.07% |
| Copper | 5.77 | -0.43% |
| Brent Crude | 103.48 | +3.26% |
| Gold | 5,005.30 | +0.23% |
| Bitcoin | 74,271.75 | -0.79% |
| China 2Y Govt Yield | - | - |
| China 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
China Credit vs Broad Money | Type: macro_line | Credit Conditions: -1.867 (2026-02-01) | Range: -3.697–13.54 | Trend(6pt): 13.54,-3.197,4.122,-1.758,-1.661,-1.867
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Loan Prime Rate 1Y | 3 | 3 | 17:15 |
| Loan Prime Rate 5Y | 3.50 | 3.50 | 17:15 |
- China's economy showed unexpected strength in early 2026 indicators, outperforming forecasts despite escalating Middle East tensions from the Iran war, boosting mainland equities sentiment.
- Hong Kong markets edged higher amid capital inflow expectations from global volatility, while Taiwan's TAIEX surged on semiconductor resilience.
- PBOC's strategic USD/CNY fixing at 6.9057 signaled steady monetary policy, with oil-driven inflation concerns lifting bond yields.
Yesterday's Recap
Mainland China's Shanghai Composite closed at 4,067.96, down 0.67%, reflecting profit-taking after recent gains amid mixed economic signals, while the CSI 300 ended at 4,665.15, slipping 0.09%, pressured by weakness in cyclical sectors despite rebound narratives. Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose modestly to 25,868.54, up 0.13%, supported by leader John Lee's comments on potential capital inflows from Middle East conflicts diversifying investor portfolios. Taiwan's TAIEX advanced strongly to 33,836.57, gaining 1.48%, driven by robust semiconductor export demand linked to global tech recovery.
Currency markets saw USD/CNY weaken to 6.89, down 0.15%, following PBOC's reference rate adjustment to 6.9057, indicating controlled depreciation amid trade talk delays. USD/HKD ticked up to 7.84, rising 0.07%, staying within the peg band as HKMA monitored aggregate balance stability. Commodity proxies like copper fell to 5.77, down 0.43%, signaling softer China demand, while Brent crude climbed to 103.48, up 3.26%, fueled by Iran war supply disruptions.
Gold rose to 5,005.30, up 0.23%, amid risk aversion, and Bitcoin dipped to 74,271.75, down 0.79%. No major data releases occurred, but prior China CPI YoY at -0.10% as of April 2025 continued to underscore deflationary pressures in mainland consumer prices.
The Day Ahead
Attention turns to mainland China's Loan Prime Rate announcements on March 19, with the 1Y rate expected to hold at 3% and the 5Y at 3.5%, potentially signaling PBOC's stance on supporting growth amid rebound signals. No events are scheduled for March 18, allowing markets to digest recent volatility from global oil spikes and US-China trade uncertainties. Investors will watch for any State Council updates on fiscal measures targeting property and consumption in mainland China.
Hong Kong may see focus on HKMA's assessment of private credit redemption risks, influencing liquidity dynamics. Taiwan's semiconductor outlook could be influenced by any fresh export data hints, though none are due imminently. Cross-strait trade flows remain a wildcard amid geopolitical tensions.
Other Economic Notes
Mainland China's property sector faces ongoing challenges, but recent rebound indicators suggest targeted stimulus could stabilize investment, with copper prices serving as a key growth proxy amid industrial demand fluctuations. (cont...)
