Greater China Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
China PMIs Expand, Stocks Rally
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Shanghai Composite | 3,944.83 | +1.36% |
| CSI 300 | 4,517.52 | +1.52% |
| Hang Seng | 25,294.03 | +2.04% |
| TAIEX | 33,174.82 | +4.58% |
| USD/CNY | 6.89 | -0.13% |
| USD/HKD | 7.84 | -0.01% |
| Copper | 5.68 | +1.02% |
| Brent Crude | 109.05 | +7.80% |
| Gold | 4,702.70 | -1.68% |
| Bitcoin | 66,897.69 | -1.73% |
| China 2Y Govt Yield | - | - |
| China 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| NBS Manufacturing PMI | 49 | 50.10 | 50.40 |
| NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI | 49.50 | 49.90 | 50.10 |
| RatingDog Manufacturing PMI | 52.10 | 51.60 | 50.80 |
Hang Seng Index | Type: market_hloc | Index: 2.529e+04 (2026-04-01) | Range: 2.438e+04–2.797e+04 | Trend(5pt): 2.634e+04,2.675e+04,2.657e+04,2.59e+04,2.529e+04
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| RatingDog Services PMI | 56.70 | 53.70 | 17:45 |
- Mainland China's NBS and Caixin PMIs showed expansion in March, signaling manufacturing recovery amid stimulus optimism.
- Greater China equities surged, with Taiwan's TAIEX posting the strongest gains on semiconductor strength.
- Trade tensions and commodity swings influenced sentiment, highlighted by Brent crude's 7.8% jump.
Yesterday's Recap
Mainland China's NBS Manufacturing PMI climbed to 50.4 in March, exceeding consensus of 50.1 and prior 49.0, marking the first expansion in six months fueled by improved output and new orders. NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1, beating expectations of 49.9 and previous 49.5, indicating slight services sector progress despite property sector challenges. Caixin (RatingDog) Manufacturing PMI registered 50.8, missing consensus of 51.6 but above prior 52.1 and remaining in expansion, underscoring domestic demand resilience against export pressures.
Shanghai Composite rose 1.36% to 3,944.83, while CSI 300 gained 1.52% to 4,517.52, supported by financial and consumer stocks on the PMI beats. Hong Kong's Hang Seng advanced 2.04% to 25,294.03, rebounding from tech weakness, and Taiwan's TAIEX soared 4.58% to 33,174.82, driven by chip sector recoveries. USD/CNY fell 0.13% to 6.89, reflecting yuan firmness, with copper up 1.02% to 5.68 as a proxy for China growth.
No significant releases from Hong Kong or Taiwan, though semiconductor trade flows bolstered TAIEX performance.
The Day Ahead
Mainland China's Caixin (RatingDog) Services PMI is slated for release at 17:45 ET, with consensus at 53.7 against prior 56.7, which may signal a services slowdown due to trade frictions. This data could shape PBoC policy expectations, particularly if it reveals softening non-manufacturing momentum. No events lined up for Hong Kong or Taiwan, directing attention to mainland metrics.
Markets may monitor State Council updates on stimulus in light of recent PMI gains. Global factors, including US indicators before the Xi-Trump summit, could also sway sentiment.
Other Economic Notes
US-China direct trade is shrinking ahead of the Xi-Trump summit, straining mainland export models as Qiushi journal labels old growth patterns unsustainable. Mainland property market contends with persistent issues, including potential new home price drops amid self-reliance initiatives. Taiwan's semiconductor exports tie into global chains, gaining from LNG reserve discussions but exposed to US chip restrictions.
