Greater China Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Mainland Rallies on War Resilience
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Shanghai Composite | 3,944.83 | +1.36% |
| CSI 300 | 4,517.52 | +1.52% |
| Hang Seng | 25,116.53 | -0.70% |
| TAIEX | 32,572.43 | -1.82% |
| USD/CNY | 6.86 | -0.38% |
| USD/HKD | 7.84 | -0.02% |
| Copper | 5.59 | +0.21% |
| Brent Crude | 105.47 | -3.92% |
| Gold | 4,733.30 | +1.64% |
| Bitcoin | 69,895.13 | +1.50% |
| China 2Y Govt Yield | - | - |
| China 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
Brent Crude Oil Price | Type: market_hloc | Price USD: 105.5 (2026-04-07) | Range: 59.96–118.3 | Trend(6pt): 59.96,70.71,71.76,103.1,109.8,105.5
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 1.30 | 1.20 | 17:30 |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | 1 | -0.30 | 17:30 |
| Producer Price Index Year-over-Year | -0.90 | 0.40 | 17:30 |
- Mainland equities surged on yuan strength and energy security amid Iran war fallout.
- Hong Kong and Taiwan indices declined, pressured by tech weakness and global risk-off.
- Upcoming China inflation data eyed for PBoC easing signals.
Yesterday's Recap
Mainland China equities led gains, with the Shanghai Composite closing at 3,944.83 (+1.36%) and CSI 300 at 4,517.52 (+1.52%), driven by optimism over domestic recovery and resilience to Iran war disruptions. Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell to 25,116.53 (-0.70%), weighed down by tech rotation and high valuations amid broader risk aversion. Taiwan's TAIEX dropped to 32,572.43 (-1.82%), hit by semiconductor export concerns linked to global LNG market turmoil from the war.
The USD/CNY weakened to 6.86 (-0.38%), reflecting yuan stability on China's energy stockpiling efforts, while USD/HKD held steady at 7.84 (-0.02%) within the peg band. Copper prices edged up to 5.59 (+0.21%), signaling sustained China demand despite oil volatility, with Brent crude falling to 105.47 (-3.92%). Gold rose to 4,733.30 (+1.64%) on safe-haven bids, and Bitcoin climbed to 69,895.13 (+1.50%).
No major data releases occurred yesterday, but markets reacted to news of China's coal giants pivoting to chemicals for growth amid constrained oil supplies. Cross-strait trade flows remained stable, with Taiwan increasing coal power reliance to offset LNG disruptions.
The Day Ahead
No events are scheduled for today or tomorrow, but investors await China's inflation data release on April 9, including YoY inflation consensus at 1.2% (previous 1.3%), MoM at -0.3% (previous 1%), and PPI YoY at 0.4% (previous -0.9%), which could underscore deflation risks and prompt PBoC action. Softer prints may boost expectations for RRR cuts or LPR trims to support the property sector and domestic demand. No events are scheduled for Hong Kong or Taiwan, shifting focus to mainland indicators amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.
Broader attention will be on yuan dynamics, potentially dodging seasonal slumps due to war resilience and economic recovery. These releases could influence copper and equity sentiment, given China's role as a key growth proxy.
Other Economic Notes
China's energy security preparations, intensified before the Iran war, are bolstering economic resilience by diversifying away from oil dependencies toward coal and chemicals. Property sector dynamics remain critical, with weak demand contributing to deflationary pressures, though state support signals potential stabilization. Cross-border collaboration, like the U.S.-Canada Chinatown Summit in Vancouver from April 6-8, highlights cultural and economic ties that could indirectly benefit Hong Kong's revitalization efforts.
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