Greater China Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Loans Miss, Yuan Firms
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Shanghai Composite | 3,986.23 | +0.51% |
| CSI 300 | 4,636.57 | +1.54% |
| Hang Seng | 25,893.54 | +0.55% |
| TAIEX | 35,417.83 | +1.60% |
| USD/CNY | 6.83 | -0.05% |
| USD/HKD | 7.83 | -0.04% |
| Copper | 6.00 | +2.21% |
| Brent Crude | 98.25 | +3.20% |
| Gold | 4,776.90 | +0.32% |
| Bitcoin | 74,638.25 | +5.49% |
| China 2Y Govt Yield | - | - |
| China 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Yuan Loans | 900,000m | 3,400,000m | 2,990,000m |
Copper Futures | Type: market_hloc | Copper: 6.001 (2026-04-13) | Range: 5.343–6.175 | Trend(6pt): 5.97,5.826,5.947,5.433,5.871,6.001
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trade Balance | 90,980m | 112,000m | 23:00 |
| Exports Year-over-Year | 39.60 | 8.30 | 23:00 |
| Imports Year-over-Year | 13.80 | 11.10 | 23:00 |
| House Price Index Year-over-Year | -3.20 | - | 21:30 |
| GDP Growth Year-over-Year | 4.50 | 4.80 | 22:00 |
| Industrial Production Year-over-Year | 6.30 | 5.60 | 22:00 |
| Retail Sales Year-over-Year | 2.80 | 2.30 | 22:00 |
| Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) Year-over-Year | 1.80 | 1.90 | 22:00 |
| GDP Growth Quarter-over-Quarter | 1.20 | 1.40 | 22:00 |
| Loan Prime Rate 1Y | 3 | - | 21:15 |
- China's March new yuan loans fell short of expectations at CNY 2.99 trillion versus consensus CNY 3.4 trillion, signaling cautious lending amid property sector strains.
- Greater China equities advanced, with CSI 300 up 1.54% and TAIEX surging 1.60%, buoyed by commodity rebounds and stimulus hopes.
- HKMA issued first stablecoin licenses to HSBC and partners, boosting Hong Kong's fintech hub ambitions.
Yesterday's Recap
Mainland China's new yuan loans for March came in at CNY 2.99 trillion, below the consensus of CNY 3.4 trillion and above the previous CNY 0.9 trillion, reflecting banks' risk aversion despite PBoC liquidity support. This data underscores ongoing credit tightness in China, particularly in real estate, where developers face funding hurdles. Equities in Greater China rose, with the Shanghai Composite gaining 0.51% to 3,986.23 and CSI 300 advancing 1.54% to 4,636.57, driven by financials and tech sectors.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng edged up 0.55% to 25,893.54, supported by banking shares amid stablecoin news, while Taiwan's TAIEX climbed 1.60% to 35,417.83 on strong semiconductor export outlooks. Currency markets were steady, with USD/CNY dipping 0.05% to 6.83 as the yuan posted its biggest weekly rise in 15 months. Commodity proxies for China growth strengthened, including copper up 2.21% to 6.00 and Brent crude rising 3.20% to 98.25, reflecting global energy disruptions.
The Day Ahead
Tonight at 23:00 ET, China's trade balance for March is due, with consensus expecting a surplus of USD 112 billion versus previous USD 90.98 billion, alongside exports YoY at 8.3% (prior 39.6%) and imports YoY at 11.1% (prior 13.8%), potentially signaling demand recovery amid global tensions. On April 15, key releases include the house price index YoY at 21:30 ET, followed by Q1 GDP growth YoY at 4.8% consensus (prior 4.5%) and quarter-over-quarter at 1.4% (prior 1.2%) at 22:00 ET. Industrial production YoY is forecast at 5.6% (prior 6.3%), retail sales YoY at 2.3% (prior 2.8%), and fixed asset investment YTD YoY at 1.9% (prior 1.8%), all at 22:00 ET, offering insights into China's post-deflation momentum.
Later on April 19, PBoC's loan prime rates for 1Y and 5Y are set at 21:15 ET, with no consensus shifts from 3% and 3.5%, respectively, amid steady policy signals. Taiwan may see indirect impacts from cross-strait trade data, while Hong Kong focuses on property market probes with developers testing price hikes.
Other Economic Notes
China's factory deflation ended after over three years, driven by surging energy costs from Middle East conflicts, reversing deflationary pressures and boosting producer prices. The property sector shows tentative recovery signs, with revamped ChiNext rules aiming to attract startups and reminders to battery makers curbing overcapacity, aligning with Xi's tech self-sufficiency push. (cont...)
