Greater China Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
China Trade Misses, Stocks Mixed
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Shanghai Composite | 4,033.69 | +0.18% |
| CSI 300 | 4,693.32 | -0.17% |
| Hang Seng | 25,872.32 | +0.82% |
| TAIEX | 36,296.12 | +2.37% |
| USD/CNY | 6.82 | -0.19% |
| USD/HKD | 7.83 | +0.05% |
| Copper | 6.08 | +0.13% |
| Brent Crude | 94.93 | +0.15% |
| Gold | 4,813.90 | -0.23% |
| Bitcoin | 74,933.05 | +1.01% |
| China 2Y Govt Yield | - | - |
| China 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Yuan Loans | 900,000m | 3,400,000m | 2,990,000m |
| Exports Year-over-Year | 21.80 | 8.30 | 2.50 |
| Imports Year-over-Year | 19.80 | 11.10 | 27.80 |
| Trade Balance | 213,620m | 112,000m | 51,130m |
Taiwan TAIEX Index | Type: market_hloc | Price: 3.63e+04 (2026-04-14) | Range: 3.081e+04–3.63e+04 | Trend(6pt): 3.081e+04,3.22e+04,3.283e+04,3.272e+04,3.546e+04,3.63e+04
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| House Price Index Year-over-Year | -3.20 | - | 17:30 |
| GDP Growth Year-over-Year | 4.50 | 4.80 | 18:00 |
| Industrial Production Year-over-Year | 6.30 | 5.60 | 18:00 |
| Retail Sales Year-over-Year | 2.80 | 2.30 | 18:00 |
| Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) Year-over-Year | 1.80 | 1.90 | 18:00 |
| GDP Growth Quarter-over-Quarter | 1.20 | 1.40 | 18:00 |
- China's March exports grew just 2.5% YoY, missing consensus of 8.3%, while imports surged 27.8% YoY, beating expectations of 11.1%, narrowing the trade surplus to CNY51.13bn versus CNY112bn forecast.
- New yuan loans in China reached CNY2.99tn, below the CNY3.4tn consensus, signaling cautious credit expansion amid economic uncertainties.
- Greater China equities showed mixed performance, with Taiwan's TAIEX surging 2.37% on AI and semiconductor optimism, while mainland indices were flat to slightly down.
Yesterday's Recap
Mainland China's March trade data disappointed, with exports rising only 2.5% YoY against a consensus of 8.3%, reflecting global demand weakness possibly tied to the Iran war's energy disruptions, while imports jumped 27.8% YoY, exceeding the 11.1% forecast, driven by commodity stockpiling. The trade balance shrank to CNY51.13bn, far below the expected CNY112bn, pressuring the yuan but highlighting resilient domestic demand. New yuan loans totaled CNY2.99tn, missing the CNY3.4tn consensus and up from previous CNY0.9tn, indicating banks' restraint amid property sector woes.
Market reactions were muted in mainland China, with the Shanghai Composite edging up 0.18% to 4,033.69 and CSI 300 dipping 0.17% to 4,693.32, as investors weighed stimulus prospects. Hong Kong's Hang Seng climbed 0.82% to 25,872.32, buoyed by regional sentiment, while Taiwan's TAIEX jumped 2.37% to 36,296.12, fueled by strong semiconductor export outlook amid AI demand. USD/CNY weakened 0.19% to 6.82, reflecting PBOC's strategic management, with copper prices up 0.13% to 6.08 as a China growth proxy.
The Day Ahead
Mainland China releases key Q1 data today, starting with the house price index YoY at 17:30 ET, where previous was -3.2%, offering insights into property sector stabilization efforts. At 18:00 ET, GDP growth YoY is expected at 4.8% versus prior 4.5%, with QoQ at 1.4% from 1.2%, potentially signaling rebound momentum amid stimulus. Industrial production YoY consensus is 5.6% from 6.3%, testing manufacturing resilience.
Retail sales YoY are forecast at 2.3% from 2.8%, reflecting consumer spending trends. Fixed asset investment YTD YoY is projected at 1.9% from 1.8%, highlighting infrastructure and investment flows.
Other Economic Notes
China's Q1 foreign trade data underscores its role as a global stabilizer, with surging battery exports amid the energy crunch from the Iran war, reinforcing alternative power demand. Property sector dynamics remain critical, as house prices continue to decline, pressuring policymakers for further support without inflating bubbles. Cross-strait trade flows benefit Taiwan's semiconductor sector, with AI-driven exports shrugging off geopolitical tensions.
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