Greater China Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
HK Growth Accelerates, Markets Mixed
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Shanghai Composite | 4,112.16 | +0.11% |
| CSI 300 | 4,807.31 | -0.06% |
| Hang Seng | 26,095.88 | +1.24% |
| TAIEX | 40,705.14 | +4.57% |
| USD/CNY | 6.83 | +0.04% |
| USD/HKD | 7.84 | +0.03% |
| Copper | 5.99 | +3.30% |
| Brent Crude | 110.11 | -3.78% |
| Gold | 4,557.80 | +0.85% |
| Bitcoin | 81,100.99 | +1.59% |
| China 2Y Govt Yield | - | - |
| China 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
Copper Futures | Type: market_hloc | Copper: 5.991 (2026-05-05) | Range: 5.343–6.12 | Trend(6pt): 5.799,6.004,5.343,5.976,5.795,5.991
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| RatingDog Services PMI | 52.10 | 52 | 17:45 |
| Exports Year-over-Year | 2.50 | - | 19:00 |
| Imports Year-over-Year | 27.80 | - | 19:00 |
| Trade Balance | 51,130m | 82,400m | 19:00 |
- Hong Kong's economy grew 5.9% in Q1 2026, its fastest quarterly pace in nearly five years, driven by strong consumption and trade despite Iran war impacts and energy shocks.
- Greater China equities were mixed, with Taiwan's TAIEX jumping 4.57% on semiconductor strength, Hong Kong's Hang Seng up 1.24%, and mainland indices near flat amid stable yuan and commodity shifts.
- HKMA highlighted FX market stability amid Middle East tensions, with plans for long-term stablecoin monitoring and potential new licenses, while noting flat bad loan ratios in a solid economy.
Yesterday's Recap
Greater China markets closed mixed on May 4, with Taiwan's TAIEX surging 4.57% to 40,705.14, fueled by robust semiconductor exports tied to global AI demand. Hong Kong's Hang Seng advanced 1.24% to 26,095.88, supported by Q1 GDP growth of 5.9%—the strongest since 2021—bolstered by resilient consumption and trade amid war-related disruptions. Mainland China's Shanghai Composite rose 0.11% to 4,112.16 on consumption and infrastructure gains, while the CSI 300 slipped 0.06% to 4,807.31 due to property sector weakness.
No significant data releases hit mainland China or Taiwan, but Hong Kong reported record tax revenue of HK$458 billion for 2025-26, up 22% from stamp duty increases. Currencies held steady, with USD/CNY at 6.83 (+0.04%) under PBoC guidance and USD/HKD at 7.84 (+0.03%) via HKMA interventions. China-linked commodities varied: copper climbed 3.30% to 5.99 on demand optimism, Brent crude dropped 3.78% to 110.11 amid OPEC cues, gold rose 0.85% to 4,557.80 as a safe haven, and Bitcoin gained 1.59% to 81,100.99.
The Day Ahead
Focus turns to China's RatingDog Services PMI on May 5 at 17:45 ET, with consensus at 52.0 against prior 52.1, offering insights into services momentum amid export trends. High-impact April trade data arrives May 8 at 19:00 ET, covering exports YoY (prior 2.5%), imports YoY (prior 27.8%), and trade balance (consensus $82.4 billion vs. prior $51.13 billion), which may underscore external demand for Greater China goods, including Taiwan semis.
No key events are set for Hong Kong or Taiwan on May 5-6, though Middle East geopolitics could sway energy prices and trade sentiment. PBoC liquidity moves remain in view for potential MLF tweaks to aid recovery.
Other Economic Notes
Mainland China's property woes persist, exacerbating deflation pressures as seen in verified CPI YoY at -0.10% as of April 2025, highlighting needs for fiscal boosts. Taiwan's TAIEX gains reflect semiconductor chain strength from AI demand, amid US-China tech frictions influencing export paths. Hong Kong's Q1 growth and record taxes underscore financial sector resilience, but HKMA flags rising bank scams as a consumer risk factor.
