Greater China Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
China PMI Beats, Stocks Mixed
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Shanghai Composite | 4,163.64 | +1.25% |
| CSI 300 | 4,883.74 | +1.59% |
| Hang Seng | 25,898.61 | -0.76% |
| TAIEX | 40,769.29 | +0.16% |
| USD/CNY | 6.81 | -0.29% |
| USD/HKD | 7.83 | +0.02% |
| Copper | 6.19 | +4.22% |
| Brent Crude | 101.96 | -7.20% |
| Gold | 4,703.10 | +3.23% |
| Bitcoin | 81,487.98 | +0.69% |
| China 2Y Govt Yield | - | - |
| China 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| RatingDog Services PMI | 52.10 | 52 | 52.60 |
Copper Futures | Type: market_hloc | Price (USD): 6.194 (2026-05-06) | Range: 5.343–6.194 | Trend(6pt): 5.864,5.894,5.439,6.07,5.943,6.194
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exports Year-over-Year | 2.50 | - | 19:00 |
| Imports Year-over-Year | 27.80 | - | 19:00 |
| Trade Balance | 51,130m | 82,400m | 19:00 |
- Mainland China's RatingDog Services PMI rose to 52.6 in April, beating consensus of 52.0 and signaling sustained expansion in services amid policy support.
- Equities showed divergence: Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 gained over 1%, while Hang Seng dipped 0.76% on profit-taking.
- Global factors like falling Brent crude and rising copper influenced Greater China markets, with USD/CNY easing 0.29%.
Yesterday's Recap
Mainland China's RatingDog Services PMI for April came in at 52.6, surpassing the consensus estimate of 52.0 and the previous reading of 52.1, indicating robust services sector growth driven by consumer spending recovery. Shanghai Composite climbed 1.25% to 4,163.64, buoyed by optimism over potential property sector stimulus, while CSI 300 advanced 1.59% to 4,883.74 on strong tech and manufacturing shares. In Hong Kong, Hang Seng fell 0.76% to 25,898.61, pressured by banking sector weakness despite positive GDP data showing Q1 expansion of 5.9%, the fastest in nearly five years.
Taiwan's TAIEX edged up 0.16% to 40,769.29, supported by semiconductor export outlook amid global AI demand. Currency markets saw USD/CNY weaken 0.29% to 6.81 as the People's Bank of China (PBoC) maintained steady fixing, while USD/HKD ticked up 0.02% to 7.83 within the peg band. Commodity proxies reflected mixed China demand: copper surged 4.22% to 6.19, signaling industrial rebound, but Brent crude dropped 7.20% to 101.96 on global supply concerns.
Gold rose 3.23% to 4,703.10, and Bitcoin gained 0.69% to 81,487.98.
The Day Ahead
Mainland China will release key trade data on May 8, including exports year-over-year, with previous growth at 2.5% and no consensus yet available, potentially highlighting external demand trends amid global tensions. Imports year-over-year, previously at 27.8%, will also be watched for insights into domestic consumption and commodity inflows. The trade balance is forecasted at 82.4 billion, up from the prior 51.13 billion, which could influence yuan dynamics if surpluses widen.
No major events are scheduled for Hong Kong or Taiwan, allowing focus on cross-strait investment flows. Investors should monitor any PBoC liquidity injections ahead of these releases to gauge policy responsiveness.
Other Economic Notes
Mainland China's property sector remains under pressure, with recent State Council signals for targeted support falling short of a full bailout, potentially weighing on fixed-asset investment. Hong Kong's record tax revenue of HK$458 billion in fiscal 2025-26, boosted by stamp duty, underscores resilience in wealth management despite global headwinds. Broader themes include Taiwan's semiconductor dominance, with global supply chain shifts favoring the island amid US-China trade frictions.
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