Greater China Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
China CPI, PPI Beat Forecasts
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Shanghai Composite | 4,179.95 | -0.00% |
| CSI 300 | 4,871.91 | -0.58% |
| Hang Seng | 26,393.71 | -0.87% |
| TAIEX | 41,603.94 | -0.79% |
| USD/CNY | 6.79 | -0.10% |
| USD/HKD | 7.83 | -0.08% |
| Copper | 6.49 | +3.88% |
| Brent Crude | 104.42 | +3.09% |
| Gold | 4,745.60 | +0.53% |
| Bitcoin | 81,837.27 | -0.37% |
| China 2Y Govt Yield | - | - |
| China 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 1 | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | -0.70 | -0.10 | 0.30 |
| Producer Price Index Year-over-Year | 0.50 | 1.50 | 2.80 |
USD/CNY Exchange Rate | Type: market_hloc | Exchange Rate: 6.794 (2026-05-11) | Range: 6.794–6.956 | Trend(5pt): 6.911,6.897,6.911,6.817,6.794
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Account Prel | 243,800m | - | 05:00 |
| House Price Index Year-over-Year | -3.40 | - | 21:30 |
| Industrial Production Year-over-Year | 5.70 | - | 22:00 |
| Retail Sales Year-over-Year | 1.70 | - | 22:00 |
| Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) Year-over-Year | 1.70 | - | 22:00 |
- China's April CPI rose 1.2% YoY, topping consensus of 0.8%, while PPI surged 2.8% YoY against 1.5% expected, easing deflation concerns amid strong exports.
- Greater China equities softened, with CSI 300 down 0.58%, Hang Seng off 0.87%, and TAIEX lower 0.79%, reflecting US-Iran tensions and global risk aversion.
- Exports jumped 14% in April, boosting trade surplus despite Hormuz disruptions curbing energy imports, as State Council pledges local debt resolution with growth support.
Yesterday's Recap
China's April inflation data beat expectations, with CPI up 1.2% YoY (consensus 0.8%, previous 1%) and MoM at 0.3% (consensus -0.1%, previous -0.7%), fueled by food price gains and base effects, though core inflation stays subdued. PPI advanced 2.8% YoY (consensus 1.5%, previous 0.5%), driven by elevated commodity prices and manufacturing rebound. Greater China stocks declined modestly, as Shanghai Composite closed flat at 4,179.95 (-0.00%), CSI 300 fell 0.58% to 4,871.91 on real estate weakness, Hang Seng dropped 0.87% to 26,393.71 from tech pressures, and TAIEX slid 0.79% to 41,603.94 amid chip sector caution.
USD/CNY dipped 0.10% to 6.79, signaling yuan firmness, while USD/HKD eased 0.08% to 7.83, preserving Hong Kong's peg. Copper rallied 3.88% to 6.49, buoyed by China demand signals, and Brent climbed 3.09% to 104.42 due to Strait of Hormuz chokepoints hitting China's energy inflows. No fresh Hong Kong or Taiwan data released, but China's exports rose 14% per reports, aiding regional trade ahead of Xi-Trump talks.
The Day Ahead
Focus shifts to China's preliminary current account on May 15, likely reflecting a strong surplus from April export gains, though Hormuz tensions may trim it from prior $243.8 billion via reduced energy imports. On May 17, house price index YoY (previous -3.4%) could highlight persistent property drags, while industrial production YoY (previous 5.7%) and retail sales YoY (previous 1.7%) may indicate stimulus-driven recovery. Fixed asset investment YTD YoY (previous 1.7%) also due May 17, shedding light on infrastructure momentum.
No events today for Hong Kong or Taiwan, but HKMA's new trade finance pilot could boost SME access, with Xi-Trump summit eyeing impacts on Taiwan semis and regional FX.
Other Economic Notes
China's exports accelerated 14% in April, demonstrating factory strength against US tariffs and geopolitical strains, with solid surpluses stabilizing yuan and cushioning property downturns. Local debt remains a concern, with State Council committing to risk mitigation alongside growth measures, possibly via broader developer financing. Taiwan's opposition pushed defense budget cuts despite US pressure, raising fiscal debates that could affect global chip chains vital to China trade.
