Greater China Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
China Inflation Data Mixed
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Shanghai Composite | 4,204.48 | -0.49% |
| CSI 300 | 4,937.76 | -0.28% |
| Hang Seng | 26,406.84 | +0.05% |
| TAIEX | 41,790.06 | +0.45% |
| USD/CNY | 6.79 | -0.05% |
| USD/HKD | 7.83 | +0.01% |
| Copper | 6.66 | +3.91% |
| Brent Crude | 107.16 | +2.83% |
| Gold | 4,732.30 | +0.29% |
| Bitcoin | 80,634.50 | -1.34% |
| China 2Y Govt Yield | - | - |
| China 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 1 | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | -0.70 | -0.10 | 0.30 |
| Producer Price Index Year-over-Year | 0.50 | 1.50 | 2.80 |
Copper Futures | Type: market_hloc | Price USD: 6.661 (2026-05-12) | Range: 5.343–6.661 | Trend(6pt): 5.771,5.757,5.467,6.036,6.413,6.661
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Account Prel | 243,800m | - | 05:00 |
| House Price Index Year-over-Year | -3.40 | - | 21:30 |
| Industrial Production Year-over-Year | 5.70 | - | 22:00 |
| Retail Sales Year-over-Year | 1.70 | - | 22:00 |
| Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) Year-over-Year | 1.70 | - | 22:00 |
- China's April CPI fell -0.1% YoY, missing consensus of 0.8%, signaling persistent deflation risks despite commodity price pressures.
- PPI surged 2.8% YoY, exceeding expectations of 1.5%, driven by higher input costs from global energy and metals rallies.
- Equities mixed: Shanghai Composite fell 0.49%, while Hang Seng and TAIEX edged higher amid geopolitical talks.
Yesterday's Recap
Mainland China's April inflation data was mixed, with CPI falling -0.1% YoY against a consensus of 0.8% and previous 1.0%, reflecting limited imported price pressures from rising oil and commodities. Monthly CPI rose 0.3% against expectations of -0.1%, reversing the prior -0.7% drop, which may ease PBoC concerns over weak domestic demand. Producer prices accelerated sharply to 2.8% YoY, above the 1.5% forecast and prior 0.5%, highlighting upstream cost-push inflation in manufacturing sectors.
Shanghai Composite closed down 0.49% at 4,204.48, weighed by profit-taking in cyclicals, while CSI 300 dipped 0.28% to 4,937.76 on similar dynamics. Hong Kong's Hang Seng inched up 0.05% to 26,406.84, supported by mainland inflows despite local news on judicial support and consultations. Taiwan's TAIEX gained 0.45% to 41,790.06, buoyed by semiconductor optimism amid easing cross-strait tensions.
Currency markets saw USD/CNY weaken slightly by 0.05% to 6.79, while USD/HKD held stable with a 0.01% rise to 7.83 within the peg band.
The Day Ahead
Investors eye China's preliminary current account data on May 15, which could reflect trade surplus trends amid ongoing US-China talks, with the previous reading at 243.8 billion yuan. House price index YoY for April, due May 17, will gauge property sector recovery, following a prior -3.4% decline and recent policy easing signals. High-impact releases on May 17 include industrial production YoY, expected around prior 5.7%, testing manufacturing resilience against global headwinds.
Retail sales YoY, previously at 1.7%, will highlight consumer spending amid inflation upticks. Fixed asset investment YTD YoY, last at 1.7%, may show infrastructure spending momentum. No major Hong Kong or Taiwan data slated, but markets will watch for any spillover from Trump-Xi summit preparations.
Other Economic Notes
Broader themes in Greater China include persistent property sector challenges in mainland China, where relaxed rules in tier-2 cities aim to boost transactions, though overall demand remains subdued. Taiwan's semiconductor supply chain benefits from global AI demand, with TAIEX gains linked to export outlooks despite geopolitical risks. Hong Kong focuses on aligning with national blueprints via upcoming five-year plan consultations, potentially enhancing cross-border investment flows.
