Greater China Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
PBoC Holds LPRs Steady as Bonds Rally
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Shanghai Composite | 4,162.18 | -0.18% |
| CSI 300 | 4,850.70 | -0.04% |
| Hang Seng | 25,797.85 | +0.48% |
| TAIEX | 40,175.56 | -1.75% |
| USD/CNY | 6.80 | +0.01% |
| USD/HKD | 7.83 | +0.03% |
| Copper | 6.33 | +2.75% |
| Brent Crude | 105.45 | -5.24% |
| Gold | 4,546.20 | +0.89% |
| Bitcoin | 77,323.06 | +0.75% |
| China 2Y Govt Yield | - | - |
| China 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Loan Prime Rate 1Y | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Loan Prime Rate 5Y | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.50 |
China Exports Value | Type: macro_line | USD bn: 3.234e+11 (2026-03-01) | Range: 2.71e+11–4.181e+11 | Trend(6pt): 2.724e+11,2.991e+11,2.766e+11,3.076e+11,4.181e+11,3.234e+11
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
- PBoC left 1Y and 5Y Loan Prime Rates unchanged at 3% and 3.5%, signaling a cautious policy stance amid mixed growth signals.
- Mainland equities closed modestly lower while Hong Kong shares advanced, with the Shanghai Composite down 0.18% and Hang Seng up 0.48%.
- Chinese government bonds diverged from global peers as yields reached nine-month lows on ample liquidity and fragile recovery.
Yesterday's Recap
The PBoC fixed the Loan Prime Rate 1Y at 3% and the 5Y at 3.5% on May 19, matching consensus and leaving borrowing costs steady for the fourth consecutive month. Mainland equities posted small losses, with the Shanghai Composite closing at 4,162.18 (-0.18%) and the CSI 300 at 4,850.70 (-0.04%). In contrast, the Hang Seng Index rose 0.48% to 25,797.85 while Taiwan’s TAIEX fell 1.75% to 40,175.56 amid semiconductor sector rotation.
USD/CNY edged up 0.01% to 6.80 and USD/HKD held near 7.83 inside the peg band. Copper gained 2.75% on firmer China demand expectations, while Brent crude dropped 5.24%. Chinese 10-year yields continued to anchor near nine-month lows as liquidity remained ample and property easing hopes resurfaced in state media.
The Day Ahead
No major data releases are scheduled for mainland China, Hong Kong or Taiwan on May 20. Markets will monitor follow-up comments from the commerce ministry on recent US-China trade consultations. Traders also await any signals from local governments on mortgage down-payment adjustments flagged in prior state media reports.
Hong Kong’s planned July launch of a new gold-clearing system may draw incremental attention to bullion market developments. Cross-strait trade flows and semiconductor export data remain in focus for Taiwan.
Other Economic Notes
State media highlighted upcoming relaxation of mortgage down-payment ratios and purchase restrictions in several cities, reviving expectations for a property sector inflection. China’s bonds continued to decouple from global yields, supported by steady liquidity and subdued inflation. Morgan Stanley’s decision to issue China-only iPhones to Hong Kong staff underscores rising corporate focus on data security for mainland travel.
Cross-strait export resilience persisted, with Taiwan shipments to the mainland showing solid April growth.
Global Macro News
Lazard’s CEO described the US economy as increasingly an “AI bet,” with implications for global risk sentiment and China tech supply chains. Japan’s solid Q1 GDP faces downside risks from Iran-related energy shocks and potential trade spillovers. <i>↓ p.2</i>
