Greater China Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
China PMIs Hold Steady as Digital Yuan Adoption Broadens
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Shanghai Composite | 4,068.57 | -0.73% |
| CSI 300 | 4,892.12 | -0.45% |
| Hang Seng | 25,182.39 | +0.70% |
| TAIEX | 44,732.94 | +2.51% |
| USD/CNY | 6.77 | -0.20% |
| USD/HKD | 7.84 | +0.02% |
| Copper | 6.56 | +3.21% |
| Brent Crude | 95.27 | +3.50% |
| Gold | 4,514.20 | -1.02% |
| Bitcoin | 71,305.87 | -3.09% |
| China 2Y Govt Yield | - | - |
| China 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| NBS Manufacturing PMI | 50.30 | 50 | 50 |
| NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI | 49.40 | 49.50 | 50.10 |
| RatingDog Manufacturing PMI | 52.20 | 51.40 | 51.80 |
China Exports & Imports | Type: macro_line | Exports (USD bn): 1.195 (2026-03-01) | Range: -13.41–39.86 | Trend(5pt): 20.5,4.577,1.416,5.768,1.195 | Imports (USD bn): 25.09 (2026-03-01) | Range: -21.14–31.26 | Trend(5pt): 31.26,-0.05262,-0.1375,-14.68,25.09
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| RatingDog Services PMI | 52.60 | 52.30 | 21:45 |
- NBS manufacturing PMI held at 50.0 while non-manufacturing rose to 50.1, pointing to stabilization in mainland activity.
- TAIEX jumped 2.51% on AI semiconductor demand, lifting Taiwan’s 2026 growth outlook above 9%.
- PBoC advances digital yuan adoption via lottery and fiscal channels as private manufacturing gauge eases to 51.8.
Yesterday's Recap
Mainland China NBS manufacturing PMI printed at 50.0, matching consensus and little changed from the prior month, while non-manufacturing PMI climbed to 50.1 against 49.5 expected. RatingDog manufacturing PMI came in at 51.8, softer than the 52.2 prior but above the 51.4 consensus, confirming a modest slowdown in export-oriented factories. Shanghai Composite fell 0.73% to 4,068.57 and CSI 300 declined 0.45% to 4,892.12 amid property and consumer weakness.
In contrast, Hang Seng rose 0.70% to 25,182.39 and TAIEX jumped 2.51% to 44,732.94 on robust semiconductor exports. USD/CNY eased 0.20% to 6.77 while copper gained 3.21% to 6.56, reflecting improved China growth sentiment. PBoC expanded digital yuan pilots to include lottery draws and fiscal disbursements, broadening domestic and cross-border usage.
The Day Ahead
RatingDog services PMI for May is scheduled for release tonight, with consensus pointing to a modest 52.3 print after April’s 52.6. Markets will watch for any follow-through improvement in services momentum after yesterday’s mixed manufacturing signals. No major data releases are slated for Hong Kong or Taiwan today.
PBoC liquidity operations and any State Council guidance on credit expansion remain in focus. HKMA aggregate balance and USD/HKD peg stability will be monitored for any shifts in reserve flows.
Other Economic Notes
China’s private factory activity continued to soften, aligning with official PMI readings and reinforcing expectations for further PBoC accommodation. Taiwan revised its 2026 GDP forecast higher than 9% on sustained AI-related semiconductor demand, underscoring supply-chain resilience. Hong Kong’s foreign reserves and liquidity data for April showed steady conditions, supporting the peg mechanism.
Broader industrial subsidies in mainland China drew OECD scrutiny for potential global distortions, though domestic credit demand remains the immediate policy priority.
Global Macro News
Brent crude rose 3.50% to 95.27, adding cost pressure to energy-importing Greater China economies. Gold slipped 1.02% to 4,514.20 as risk appetite improved on equity gains. Bitcoin declined 3.09% to 71,305.87 amid broader crypto volatility.
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