Greater China Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Yuan Hits 4-Year High vs Basket as PMI Surges
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Shanghai Composite | 4,083.97 | +0.22% |
| CSI 300 | 4,938.81 | +0.49% |
| Hang Seng | 26,038.32 | +2.52% |
| TAIEX | 45,557.31 | +0.48% |
| USD/CNY | 6.76 | -0.04% |
| USD/HKD | 7.84 | -0.01% |
| Copper | 6.49 | -2.41% |
| Brent Crude | 97.19 | +1.24% |
| Gold | 4,478.10 | -0.25% |
| Bitcoin | 64,269.27 | -3.65% |
| China 2Y Govt Yield | - | - |
| China 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| RatingDog Services PMI | 52.60 | 52.30 | 54.40 |
China Exports vs Imports YoY | Type: macro_line | Exports YoY %: 1.195 (2026-03-01) | Range: -13.41–39.86 | Trend(5pt): 20.5,4.577,1.416,5.768,1.195 | Imports YoY %: 25.09 (2026-03-01) | Range: -21.14–31.26 | Trend(5pt): 31.26,-0.05262,-0.1375,-14.68,25.09
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
- China’s RatingDog Services PMI jumped to 54.4 in May, well above the 52.3 consensus, signaling stronger service-sector momentum.
- Equities advanced with Hang Seng surging 2.52% while Shanghai Composite rose 0.22% and CSI 300 gained 0.49%.
- USD/CNY eased 0.04% to 6.76 as the yuan reached its strongest level against a trade-weighted basket since 2022.
Yesterday's Recap
China’s May RatingDog Services PMI printed 54.4, beating consensus by 2.1 points and marking the strongest reading in several months on robust new orders. Mainland equities closed higher, with Shanghai Composite at 4,083.97 (+0.22%) and CSI 300 at 4,938.81 (+0.49%), supported by property-policy expectations and the softer dollar print. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index climbed 2.52% to 26,038.32 while Taiwan’s TAIEX added 0.48% to 45,557.31.
USD/CNY settled at 6.76, down 0.04%, and USD/HKD held steady at 7.84. Copper fell 2.41% to 6.49 amid mixed demand signals, while Brent crude rose 1.24% to 97.19. The PBoC set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.8184, reinforcing a stability bias as the yuan strengthened versus peer currencies.
The Day Ahead
Markets will monitor PBoC 7-day reverse-repo operations and any MLF top-ups expected around RMB 200 billion. No major data releases are scheduled for mainland China, Hong Kong or Taiwan today. Traders will watch USD/CNY fixings for further signals on yuan policy.
Hong Kong aggregate balance remains in focus for peg stability. Taiwan semiconductor export trends and any cross-strait trade updates may influence TAIEX sentiment.
Other Economic Notes
China’s LNG imports rebounded in May as buyers stocked ahead of summer peak demand. Property transaction volumes in the top 30 cities rose 12% month-on-month in May after Beijing expanded the white-list of eligible projects. OCBC analysts continue to forecast gradual yuan appreciation on improving external balances.
Cross-strait semiconductor supply-chain data remain supportive for Taiwan, with no fresh trade tensions reported.
Global Macro News
The stronger yuan coincides with a broadly firmer dollar driven by Iran-related risk premia and mixed global growth prints. Japan warned traders as USD/JPY approached the 160 intervention zone, raising volatility for Asian currencies. Brazil-China trade ties within BRICS drew renewed attention amid Latin American growth concerns.
Global LNG and energy markets tightened as China stepped up purchases. Broader risk sentiment stayed supported by expectations of measured policy responses from major central banks. Copper and gold moves reflected China-specific demand signals amid global commodity swings.
