Greater China Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
China Exports Surge on AI Demand, HK Slips
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Shanghai Composite | 4,010.03 | +1.28% |
| CSI 300 | 4,801.81 | +1.87% |
| Hang Seng | 24,657.06 | -1.22% |
| TAIEX | 43,502.78 | -3.48% |
| USD/CNY | 6.77 | +0.09% |
| USD/HKD | 7.84 | +0.03% |
| Copper | 6.35 | +0.36% |
| Brent Crude | 91.83 | -2.57% |
| Gold | 4,284.80 | -1.18% |
| Bitcoin | 61,656.59 | -2.27% |
| China 2Y Govt Yield | - | - |
| China 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exports Year-over-Year | 14.10 | 15 | 19.40 |
| Imports Year-over-Year | 25.30 | 25 | 27.40 |
| Trade Balance | 84,800m | 92,100m | 105,430m |
China Exports YoY | Type: macro_line | YoY %: 1.195 (2026-03-01) | Range: -13.41–39.86 | Trend(5pt): 20.5,4.577,1.416,5.768,1.195
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 1.20 | 1.30 | 17:30 |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | 0.30 | -0.20 | 17:30 |
| Producer Price Index Year-over-Year | 2.80 | 3.80 | 17:30 |
- China May exports jumped 19.4% YoY and imports 27.4% YoY, both exceeding forecasts and widening the trade surplus to USD105.43 billion.
- Mainland equities advanced with Shanghai Composite up 1.28% and CSI 300 up 1.87%, while Hang Seng fell 1.22% and TAIEX dropped 3.48%.
- HKMA confirmed Hong Kong dollar stablecoin launches this year alongside continued Wealth Management Connect 3.0 discussions.
Yesterday's Recap
China released stronger-than-expected May trade figures showing exports rising 19.4% year-over-year against a 15% consensus and imports climbing 27.4% versus 25% expected, lifting the trade balance to USD105.43 billion. The outperformance was driven by robust demand for artificial intelligence hardware. Mainland equities responded positively with the Shanghai Composite gaining 1.28% to 4,010.03 and the CSI 300 advancing 1.87% to 4,801.81.
In contrast, the Hang Seng Index declined 1.22% to 24,657.06 and the TAIEX fell 3.48% to 43,502.78 amid profit-taking in technology names. USD/CNY edged 0.09% higher to 6.77 while USD/HKD rose 0.03% to 7.84, keeping the peg intact. Copper rebounded 0.36% on fresh China buying interest.
The Day Ahead
China will release May CPI and PPI data at 17:30 ET, with consensus pointing to a modest CPI uptick to 1.3% year-over-year and PPI rising to 3.8%. Markets will monitor any signs of persistent deflationary pressure in consumer prices. HKMA continues to advance stablecoin regulatory frameworks, with HSBC and Anchor Technology expected to issue tokens later this year.
No major policy announcements are scheduled from the PBoC or CBC today.
Other Economic Notes
China’s May passenger car sales contracted 22.1%, prompting the China Passenger Car Association to deepen its full-year forecast cut and highlighting ongoing weakness in domestic consumption. Copper prices recovered on renewed physical buying from mainland smelters and inventory restocking ahead of potential stimulus measures. Broader property sector data remain absent, leaving investors reliant on trade and liquidity signals for growth clues.
Global Macro News
Global risk sentiment stayed mixed as AI-related demand continued to lift Chinese export values while Brent crude fell 2.57% to 91.83 on softer energy demand signals. Gold declined 1.18% to 4,284.80 amid a firmer dollar. Bitcoin dropped 2.27% to 61,656.59, reflecting broader crypto de-risking.
UOB noted the yuan trading neutrally inside the 6.7620–6.7980 band against the dollar. <i>↓ p.2</i>
