Greater China Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
China PMIs Beat, PBoC Injects CNY600bn
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Shanghai Composite | 4,112.45 | +0.44% |
| CSI 300 | 4,958.98 | -0.50% |
| Hang Seng | 22,881.02 | -0.63% |
| TAIEX | 46,125.91 | +2.50% |
| USD/CNY | 6.79 | +0.00% |
| USD/HKD | 7.84 | +0.01% |
| Copper | 6.16 | -0.53% |
| Brent Crude | 71.13 | -2.45% |
| Gold | 4,056.70 | +0.84% |
| Bitcoin | 60,381.01 | +3.11% |
| China 2Y Govt Yield | - | - |
| China 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| NBS Manufacturing PMI | 50 | 50.10 | 50.30 |
| NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI | 50.10 | 49.90 | 50.20 |
| RatingDog Manufacturing PMI | 51.80 | 51.60 | 51.70 |
China Imports YoY | Type: macro_line | YoY %: 25.05 (2026-04-01) | Range: -21.28–29.91 | Trend(5pt): 29.91,-1.354,1.57,7.315,25.05
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| RatingDog Services PMI | - | 53.60 | 17:45 |
| Thursday (2026-07-02) | |||
| RatingDog Services PMI | - | 53.60 | 17:45 |
- NBS manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 and non-manufacturing to 50.2 in June, both above consensus.
- PBoC fixed the yuan stronger at 6.8109 and added CNY600bn via overnight reverse repos.
- Shanghai Composite gained 0.44% while TAIEX surged 2.50%; HKMA aggregate balance stayed ample.
Yesterday's Recap
China’s June NBS manufacturing PMI printed 50.3 versus 50.1 expected, while non-manufacturing PMI reached 50.2 against 49.9 consensus, signaling modest expansion in both factory and services activity. RatingDog manufacturing PMI edged up to 51.7, confirming the positive tone. The PBoC set the daily yuan fix at 6.8109, a stronger parity rate, and injected CNY600bn through overnight reverse repos to stabilize liquidity.
Equity markets showed divergence: Shanghai Composite rose 0.44% to 4,112.45 while CSI 300 slipped 0.50%; Hang Seng fell 0.63% but TAIEX jumped 2.50% on semiconductor strength. USD/CNY held at 6.79 and USD/HKD at 7.84, with the HKD peg remaining mechanically stable. Copper declined 0.53% and Brent crude dropped 2.45%, reflecting softer near-term demand signals despite the PMI beat.
The Day Ahead
RatingDog Services PMI is scheduled for release at 17:45 ET, with consensus at 53.6. Markets will watch for any follow-through confirmation of services momentum after yesterday’s official PMI gains. The PBoC is expected to conduct routine 7-day reverse repo operations with no MLF or LPR decisions due this week.
No HKMA or CBC policy announcements are listed. Property financing guidelines from the State Council may surface as authorities expand the white-list project count.
Other Economic Notes
June PMI beats reduce immediate pressure for broad-based PBoC easing yet leave scope for targeted liquidity tools. Property-sector support measures, including an expanded white list of 6,000 projects, continue to underpin construction-related readings. Taiwan’s semiconductor export orders remain robust, supporting TAIEX outperformance and limiting CBC rate-cut urgency.
Hong Kong’s foreign-reserve and aggregate-balance data show ample buffers that mechanically defend the USD/HKD peg. Cross-strait trade flows stay steady absent new tech-export restrictions.
Global Macro News
The Fed’s resilient-economy narrative and contained inflation fears support a cautious global rate path that indirectly eases pressure on Asian currencies. World Bank plans to phase out new China lending reflect ongoing geopolitical scrutiny but have limited immediate market impact. <i>↓ p.2</i>
