TAIEX Slumps as China PMI Data Looms

Market Snapshot

Asset	Level	Change
Shanghai Composite	3,828.47	+0.40%
CSI 300	4,600.26	+0.67%
Hang Seng	25,310.85	+0.41%
TAIEX	41,603.36	-4.65%
USD/CNY	6.75	-0.17%
USD/HKD	7.84	+0.00%
Copper	6.35	+0.39%
Brent Crude	90.54	+7.67%
Gold	4,126.00	+2.22%
Bitcoin	63,927.27	+0.09%
China 2Y Govt Yield	-	-
China 10Y Govt Yield	-	-

Prior Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Actual
No events available

Today's Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Time
NBS Manufacturing PMI	50.30	50	17:30
NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI	50.20	50	17:30

Thursday (2026-07-30)
NBS Manufacturing PMI	50.30	50	17:30
NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI	50.20	50	17:30

Mainland China NBS Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs due today with consensus at 50.0, following prior prints of 50.3 and 50.2.
Equities mixed: Shanghai Composite rose 0.40% to 3,828.47 while TAIEX fell 4.65% to 41,603.36 on semiconductor weakness.
USD/CNY eased to 6.75 with PBoC fixing near 6.79; Brent crude jumped 7.67% to 90.54 amid global supply signals.

Yesterday's Recap

Mainland China equity markets posted modest gains with Shanghai Composite advancing 0.40% to 3,828.47 and CSI 300 climbing 0.67% to 4,600.26, supported by property-related policy signals and steady liquidity expectations. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index edged 0.41% higher to 25,310.85 while USD/HKD held flat at 7.84, reflecting stable peg mechanics under HKMA oversight. Taiwan's TAIEX dropped sharply 4.65% to 41,603.36 amid semiconductor sector selling pressure and broader tech rotation.

USD/CNY closed at 6.75 after PBoC set the daily reference rate at 6.7899, marking a modest easing from the prior session. Copper rose 0.39% to 6.35 as a China demand proxy while gold advanced 2.22% to 4,126.00 on safe-haven flows. No high-impact data releases occurred across Greater China yesterday, leaving market focus on upcoming PMI prints and external policy cues.

Cross-strait trade flows showed continued ASEAN diversification trends without new Taiwan export restrictions. Beijing expanded mortgage-relief measures for first-home buyers in second-tier cities and instructed banks to accelerate loan approvals, underpinning modest equity gains without altering broader fixed-asset investment trends.

The Day Ahead

Mainland China's NBS Manufacturing PMI and Non-Manufacturing PMI are scheduled for release at 17:30 ET, with consensus forecasts pointing to slight contractions to 50.0 from prior levels above the 50 threshold. These prints will provide fresh readings on mainland factory activity and services momentum ahead of potential PBoC liquidity operations. HKMA aggregate balance data and CBC foreign reserve figures are also due, offering updates on Hong Kong peg dynamics and Taiwan external position.

No major central bank rate decisions are expected today across the three economies. Market participants will monitor USD/CNY reference rate setting for signs of PBoC tolerance around current 6.79 levels. Broader attention remains on any State Council signals regarding tech finance data sharing initiatives.

Yuan stability near 6.75 persists despite looming Fed and Politburo meetings, with exports to ASEAN continuing to outpace shipments to the US.

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Other Economic Notes

PBoC's launch of a national data catalogue aims to enhance tech finance and cross-agency data sharing, supporting mainland China's push for AI-related investment without direct rate adjustments. Hong Kong banks scored only 2.3 out of 10 on quantum readiness per HKMA survey, highlighting infrastructure gaps even as the authority expands CMU linkages with Switzerland. Taiwan's five-year bond yield reached its highest level since 2008 on rate expectations, while USTR probes into overcapacity now include the island among 16 partners.

Property sector relief measures in second-tier mainland cities continue to underpin modest equity gains without altering broader fixed-asset investment trends. US sanctions targeted mainland and Hong Kong shipping firms over Iranian oil, adding friction to regional trade routes without immediate FX impact.

Global Macro News

Brent crude surged 7.67% to 90.54 on supply concerns that could indirectly support China import demand, while gold's 2.22% rise to 4,126.00 reflected global risk aversion spilling into Greater China flows. Fed commentary on economic resilience contrasts with divisions at other central banks, potentially delaying external easing that might otherwise support PBoC accommodation. Semiconductor weakness in global indices amplified TAIEX declines, linking Taiwan's export outlook to broader tech cycles.

Yuan's modest pullback from weekly highs aligns with positioning ahead of multiple policy meetings worldwide. IMF notes on Saudi resilience underscore parallel diversification themes relevant to China's ASEAN trade shift.

Greater China Central Banks Watch

PBoC maintained steady liquidity via daily reverse repo operations and fixed the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.7899, signaling no immediate need for MLF adjustments or RRR cuts amid contained inflation at 1.00% YoY. The central bank advanced its data catalogue initiative to bolster tech finance, consistent with State Council priorities rather than aggressive easing. HKMA reported Hong Kong banks lag on quantum security preparations with a 2.3/10 readiness score, while expanding CMU international linkages to support securities access without altering peg mechanics at USD/HKD 7.84.

Aggregate balance updates due tomorrow will clarify liquidity conditions under the currency board. CBC faces pressure from rising Taiwan five-year yields at multi-year highs, with the committee voting to hold rates amid semiconductor export linkages and foreign outflow pressures countered by exporter flows. No FX intervention signals emerged despite TAIEX volatility.

Overall, all three central banks adopted a hold posture focused on stability over outright policy shifts.

Greater China Macro Daily(Beta Mode)