Greater China Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
China PMI Looms as Equities Diverge
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Shanghai Composite | 3,804.69 | -0.62% |
| CSI 300 | 4,549.72 | -1.10% |
| Hang Seng | 25,807.92 | +1.96% |
| TAIEX | 40,039.18 | -3.76% |
| USD/CNY | 6.74 | -0.40% |
| USD/HKD | 7.84 | +0.02% |
| Copper | 6.50 | +3.62% |
| Brent Crude | 89.45 | -1.42% |
| Gold | 4,162.80 | +3.17% |
| Bitcoin | 64,668.50 | +1.19% |
| China 2Y Govt Yield | - | - |
| China 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
China Exports Value | Type: macro_line | USD mn: 13.75 (2026-04-01) | Range: -14.55–39.64 | Trend(5pt): 24.38,0.5134,0.6066,0.7746,13.75
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| NBS Manufacturing PMI | 50.30 | 50 | 17:30 |
| NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI | 50.20 | 50 | 17:30 |
- NBS Manufacturing PMI due at 50.0 consensus after 50.3 prior
- Hang Seng gains 1.96% while TAIEX drops 3.76%
- PBoC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 6.7899
Yesterday's Recap
Mainland Chinese equities closed lower on July 29 with Shanghai Composite falling 0.62% to 3,804.69 and CSI 300 declining 1.10% to 4,549.72 amid cautious positioning ahead of PMI prints. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng advanced 1.96% to 25,807.92 while Taiwan’s TAIEX plunged 3.76% to 40,039.18 on semiconductor sector weakness. USD/CNY eased 0.40% to 6.74 after the PBoC set the daily reference rate at 6.7899 versus 6.7928 previously, signaling support for the yuan.
Copper surged 3.62% to 6.50 on China demand hopes while gold rose 3.17% to 4,162.80. The HKMA left its base rate unchanged at 4% following the Fed’s decision to hold, keeping the USD/HKD peg stable at 7.84. US sanctions on mainland China and Hong Kong shipping firms involved in Iranian oil deliveries added geopolitical pressure without immediate market disruption.
The Day Ahead
China’s NBS Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI releases at 17:30 ET today carry high impact, with consensus pointing to 50.0 for both after prior readings of 50.3 and 50.2. Markets will watch for signs of stabilization in factory activity and services momentum. The PBoC is expected to conduct routine liquidity operations including reverse repos and MLF to manage funding conditions.
Hong Kong will monitor any HKMA response to aggregate balance shifts while Taiwan tracks semiconductor export linkages amid ongoing USTR Section 301 overcapacity probes that include the island. No major data releases are scheduled for Hong Kong or Taiwan tomorrow.
Other Economic Notes
China’s thermal coal prices rebounded on hotter weather lifting air-conditioning demand and power generation needs. Property developers face ongoing liquidity strains as Hong Kong builder Parkview missed an interest payment on a $940 million loan secured by Beijing assets. Gold imports into Hong Kong hit decade highs in June ahead of the new clearing system launch, reflecting safe-haven flows.
Broader Politburo signals emphasized “more proactive” fiscal measures without committing to large-scale consumer stimulus, leaving export reliance as the default growth channel. Cross-strait trade tensions stayed contained despite Taiwan’s suspension of spot LNG purchases from Papua New Guinea over diplomatic disputes.
Global Macro News
Treasury Secretary Bessent held high-level talks with China’s vice premier to prepare for a potential Xi visit, focusing on trade imbalances and overcapacity. <i>↓ p.2</i>
