Greater China Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
PBOC Steadies Yuan Fix as Factory Slump Deepens
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Shanghai Composite | 3,832.26 | +0.72% |
| CSI 300 | 4,588.20 | +0.85% |
| Hang Seng | 25,884.43 | +0.10% |
| TAIEX | 43,119.75 | +7.98% |
| USD/CNY | 6.74 | -0.15% |
| USD/HKD | 7.84 | -0.01% |
| Copper | 6.47 | +0.33% |
| Brent Crude | 90.12 | +1.22% |
| Gold | 4,107.00 | +0.17% |
| Bitcoin | 63,647.60 | +1.41% |
| China 2Y Govt Yield | - | - |
| China 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
China Manufacturing PMI | Type: macro_line | Index: 89.9 (2026-05-01) | Range: 85.5–121.5 | Trend(5pt): 121.2,85.5,88.9,87.5,89.9
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ratingdog Manufacturing PMI Index | - | 51.50 | 21:45 |
| Ratingdog Services PMI Index | - | 53.70 | 21:45 |
| Trade Balance | 125,620m | 112,500m | 23:00 |
| Exports Year-over-Year | 27 | - | 23:00 |
| Imports Year-over-Year | 36 | - | 23:00 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 1 | - | 21:30 |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | -0.30 | - | 21:30 |
| Producer Price Index Year-over-Year | 4.10 | - | 21:30 |
- PBOC held the daily yuan fixing near 6.7894 to curb rally momentum while mainland equities advanced.
- China’s July factory activity contracted for the first time in five months, with construction hitting pandemic lows.
- TAIEX surged 7.98% on semiconductor demand while HKMA reported exchange fund assets at HK$4.46 trillion.
Yesterday's Recap
Mainland China markets closed higher despite weak July activity data. The Shanghai Composite rose 0.72% to 3,832.26 and the CSI 300 gained 0.85% to 4,588.20 after reports showed factory output contracting for the first time in five months and construction activity falling to the lowest level since the pandemic began. The PBOC set the daily yuan fixing at 6.7894, a level weaker than market expectations, signaling intent to slow the currency’s recent gains.
USD/CNY eased 0.15% to 6.74. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng edged up 0.10% to 25,884.43 while the HKMA reported exchange fund assets reached HK$4.46 trillion and foreign currency reserves data for June. Taiwan’s TAIEX jumped 7.98% to 43,119.75, driven by semiconductor supply-chain inflows.
Copper, a key China growth proxy, rose 0.33% to 6.47.
The Day Ahead
The Ratingdog Manufacturing PMI is scheduled for release tonight with a consensus of 51.5, following the unexpected July contraction. Trade balance figures due August 6 are expected to show exports and imports moderating from prior double-digit gains. CPI and PPI data on August 8 will provide the first inflation read since the June print of 1.00% YoY.
HKMA aggregate balance and liquidity metrics are due later this week. No CBC policy meeting is calendared, though Taiwan’s semiconductor export outlook remains the dominant driver for regional flows. Markets will watch for any State Council signals on liquidity support ahead of the data slate.
Other Economic Notes
China approved eight new nuclear reactors worth over 170 billion yuan to meet surging power demand, accelerating the shift toward non-coal capacity. Solar installations are on track to surpass coal as the largest generation source within months. Property sector weakness persists, with construction activity at multi-year lows and limited signs of stabilization in transaction volumes.
Export-oriented manufacturers face fading momentum after the second-quarter rebound, raising downside risks to Q3 growth. Panda bond issuance is set to increase further as the PBOC encourages offshore renminbi use.
