Greater China Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
China PMI Misses as Equities Advance
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Shanghai Composite | 3,832.26 | +0.72% |
| CSI 300 | 4,588.20 | +0.85% |
| Hang Seng | 25,918.14 | +0.13% |
| TAIEX | 43,227.96 | +0.25% |
| USD/CNY | 6.76 | +0.07% |
| USD/HKD | 7.84 | +0.00% |
| Copper | 6.60 | +2.48% |
| Brent Crude | 84.79 | -5.91% |
| Gold | 4,113.70 | +1.60% |
| Bitcoin | 63,750.84 | +0.42% |
| China 2Y Govt Yield | - | - |
| China 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ratingdog Manufacturing PMI Index | 51.70 | 51.50 | 50.90 |
Shanghai Composite Index | Type: market_hloc | Index: 3812 (2026-08-04) | Range: 3764–4243 | Trend(6pt): 4160,4094,4108,4037,3805,3812
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ratingdog Services PMI Index | - | 53.70 | 21:45 |
| Trade Balance | 125,620m | 108,000m | 23:00 |
| Exports Year-over-Year | 27 | 22.70 | 23:00 |
| Imports Year-over-Year | 36 | 28.60 | 23:00 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 1 | - | 21:30 |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | -0.30 | - | 21:30 |
| Producer Price Index Year-over-Year | 4.10 | - | 21:30 |
- Mainland China July manufacturing PMI fell to 50.9, below 51.5 consensus, signaling softening factory activity.
- Shanghai Composite rose 0.72% to 3,832.26 while CSI 300 gained 0.85%, led by growth-sensitive sectors.
- PBoC signaled timely policy adjustments to support loose stance amid subdued price pressures.
Yesterday's Recap
Mainland China’s Ratingdog Manufacturing PMI printed at 50.9 in July, missing the 51.5 consensus and marking the weakest reading in three months. The contraction in new orders and output components pointed to softening domestic and external demand. Equity markets responded positively, with the Shanghai Composite climbing 0.72% to 3,832.26 and the CSI 300 advancing 0.85% to 4,588.20 on selective buying in new-energy names.
The Hang Seng Index edged 0.13% higher to 25,918.14 while the TAIEX rose 0.25% to 43,227.96, supported by semiconductor supply-chain flows. USD/CNY ticked up 0.07% to 6.76 as the PBoC fixing remained steady. Copper surged 2.48% to 6.60 on stimulus expectations, while Brent crude fell 5.91% to 84.79.
Gold rose 1.60% to 4,113.70 and Bitcoin gained 0.42% to 63,750.84. Hong Kong’s aggregate balance stayed ample with no HKMA intervention required to defend the peg.
The Day Ahead
Investors will focus on China’s July services PMI due tomorrow evening, with consensus at 53.7. Trade data scheduled for 6 August will test export resilience after June’s strong print, with consensus calling for 22.7% y/y growth. Import figures and the overall trade balance will also be released the same day.
CPI and PPI prints on 8 August will update the inflation picture, with markets watching for any further signs of deflationary pressure. No major central-bank decisions are expected this week across the three economies.
Other Economic Notes
Property transaction volumes in tier-1 cities rose modestly after the latest mortgage-rate adjustment took effect. Persistent PPI weakness continues to highlight the need for further policy support to stabilize manufacturing margins. Cross-strait semiconductor shipments from Taiwan remained robust, providing a buffer to the island’s growth outlook.
Hong Kong delivery-rider compensation proposals have drawn attention but carry limited direct macro impact. Broader liquidity conditions in mainland China remain accommodative following recent State Council guidance. Non-stop summer rain has left Hong Kong farmers with heavy crop losses, adding localized pressure on food prices without altering the broader disinflation trend.
