Greater China Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
China PMI Slumps, Trade Data in Focus
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Shanghai Composite | 3,878.96 | +1.48% |
| CSI 300 | 4,658.15 | +1.24% |
| Hang Seng | 25,852.92 | -0.60% |
| TAIEX | 43,360.66 | -0.06% |
| USD/CNY | 6.74 | -0.18% |
| USD/HKD | 7.84 | +0.02% |
| Copper | 6.75 | +1.96% |
| Brent Crude | 79.40 | +0.05% |
| Gold | 4,308.00 | +5.19% |
| Bitcoin | 64,697.99 | +1.00% |
| China 2Y Govt Yield | - | - |
| China 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ratingdog Services PMI Index | 54.10 | 53.70 | 50.40 |
USD/CNY Exchange Rate 3M | Type: market_hloc | Rate: 6.74 (2026-08-05) | Range: 6.74–6.83 | Trend(6pt): 6.83,6.786,6.757,6.792,6.751,6.74
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exports Year-over-Year | 27 | 22.70 | 19:00 |
| Imports Year-over-Year | 36 | 28.60 | 19:00 |
| Trade Balance | 125,620m | 108,000m | 19:00 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 1 | - | 17:30 |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | -0.30 | - | 17:30 |
| Producer Price Index Year-over-Year | 4.10 | - | 17:30 |
- China Services PMI plunged to 50.4 in July, well below consensus of 53.7, signaling sharp slowdown in activity.
- Shanghai Composite rose 1.48% and CSI 300 gained 1.24% while Hang Seng fell 0.60% amid mixed regional sentiment.
- PBoC injected 398.5 billion yuan via 7-day reverse repos at 1.40%, underscoring ongoing liquidity support.
Yesterday's Recap
China’s Ratingdog Services PMI Index fell sharply to 50.4 on August 4, missing consensus expectations of 53.7 and the prior reading of 54.1, pointing to a pronounced slowdown in mainland services activity. Equity markets diverged, with mainland indices advancing as Shanghai Composite closed at 3,878.96 and CSI 300 at 4,658.15, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng declined 0.60% to 25,852.92 and Taiwan’s TAIEX edged down 0.06%. The yuan strengthened modestly, with USD/CNY declining 0.18% to 6.74.
Copper, a key China growth proxy, rose 1.96% to 6.75, reflecting some resilience in industrial demand despite the PMI miss. No major data releases emerged from Hong Kong or Taiwan, leaving mainland China as the dominant focus. Liquidity conditions remained supportive following the PBoC’s reverse-repo operations.
Rising consumer defaults are constraining bank lending appetite and complicating efforts to stimulate household spending, while reflation momentum appears to be fading as earlier policy support effects dissipate.
The Day Ahead
Mainland China will release July export, import and trade balance figures on August 6, with consensus pointing to a moderation in export growth to 22.7% from 27% previously. Import growth is expected to ease to 28.6% from 36%, while the trade surplus is forecast to narrow to 108 billion USD. These prints will provide fresh insight into external demand resilience and domestic consumption trends.
CPI and PPI data scheduled for August 8 will offer the next gauge of price pressures, building on the verified May CPI YoY reading of 1.20%. Markets will also monitor any follow-through liquidity operations from the PBoC ahead of the weekend. Hong Kong and Taiwan calendars remain light, with attention likely shifting back to cross-strait trade flows and semiconductor supply-chain performance.
Other Economic Notes
Rising consumer defaults in mainland China are constraining bank lending appetite and complicating Beijing’s efforts to stimulate household spending. Reflation momentum appears to be fading as the effects of earlier policy support dissipate, leaving domestic price trends fragile. Property sector weakness continues to weigh on broader credit demand despite targeted easing measures.
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