Greater China Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
China Stocks Climb Ahead of PMI Releases
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Shanghai Composite | 3,956.57 | +1.13% |
| CSI 300 | 4,630.28 | +0.86% |
| Hang Seng | 25,652.97 | +0.56% |
| TAIEX | 45,832.62 | +1.47% |
| USD/CNY | 6.72 | -0.01% |
| USD/HKD | 7.84 | +0.00% |
| Copper | 6.69 | +1.48% |
| Brent Crude | 88.56 | +0.82% |
| Gold | 4,654.80 | +1.23% |
| Bitcoin | 80,249.48 | +1.55% |
| China 2Y Govt Yield | - | - |
| China 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
China Exports Value YoY | Type: macro_line | YoY %: 25.39 (2026-06-01) | Range: -14.55–39.64 | Trend(6pt): 28.08,-7.386,3.985,11.57,20.45,25.39
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| NBS Manufacturing PMI Index | 49.20 | 49.70 | 21:30 |
| NBS Non Manufacturing PMI Index | 49 | - | 21:30 |
| Ratingdog Manufacturing PMI Index | 50.90 | 50.80 | 21:45 |
| Ratingdog Services PMI Index | 50.40 | - | 21:45 |
- Mainland, Hong Kong and Taiwan equities rose on stimulus expectations, with Shanghai Composite up 1.13% and TAIEX gaining 1.47%.
- PBoC fixed USD/CNY reference rate at 6.7840, pointing to modest yuan softening while offshore rate held near 6.72.
- Attention turns to August NBS manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI releases due 30 August.
Yesterday's Recap
Mainland Chinese equities posted solid gains as investors priced in further policy support following recent State Council signals on property easing. Shanghai Composite closed at 3,956.57, up 1.13%, while CSI 300 advanced 0.86% to 4,630.28. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rose 0.56% to 25,652.97 amid steady turnover and no HKMA intervention.
Taiwan’s TAIEX climbed 1.47% to 45,832.62, supported by semiconductor supply-chain optimism. USD/CNY settled at 6.72 after the PBoC’s daily fix at 6.7840, and USD/HKD remained anchored at 7.84. Copper, a key China demand proxy, surged 1.48% to 6.69, while Brent crude added 0.82% to 88.56.
Gold rose 1.23% to 4,654.80 and Bitcoin gained 1.55% to 80,249.48. China’s July CPI at 0.50% YoY continued to signal subdued price pressures, keeping expectations for measured PBoC liquidity support intact. Property easing in Beijing and Shanghai is unlocking presale funds, lifting developer shares.
The Day Ahead
Markets will focus on the 30 August NBS manufacturing PMI, expected at 49.7 versus 49.2 prior, alongside the non-manufacturing reading. Ratingdog manufacturing PMI follows the same evening with consensus at 50.8. Any downside surprise would reinforce bets on an additional RRR cut before year-end.
Hong Kong and Taiwan calendars remain light, though HKMA aggregate balance data may draw attention for peg stability signals. Cross-strait trade flows and any new US export-control updates could also influence sentiment ahead of the long weekend. Fortescue’s planned panda bond debut and Shein’s Hong Kong IPO pricing at a $26.5 billion valuation add to regional capital-market focus.
Other Economic Notes
Property-sector easing measures in Beijing and Shanghai continue to support developer shares by unlocking earlier access to presale funds once milestones are met. Subdued CPI readings leave room for PBoC to maintain accommodative liquidity without immediate inflation concerns. Taiwan’s semiconductor export orders showed moderation in July, highlighting inventory digestion at key clients and potential implications for CBC policy.
Regional equity inflows remain selective, favoring sectors tied to domestic stimulus over export-exposed names. China’s fertilizer shipments to India are set to reach at least 1.2 million tons, providing a modest offset in bulk-commodity trade.
