India Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
PMIs Soften, Equities Rally
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Nifty 50 | 22,912.40 | +1.78% |
| Sensex | 74,068.45 | +1.89% |
| USD/INR | 93.98 | +0.79% |
| EUR/INR | 109.24 | +1.04% |
| Reliance | 1,410.40 | +0.18% |
| HDFC Bank | 754.00 | +1.32% |
| Brent Crude | 98.30 | -1.64% |
| Gold | 4,545.00 | +3.20% |
| Bitcoin | 70,618.06 | -0.42% |
| India Short-term Rate | 5.50% | +0.00% |
| India Long-term Rate | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| HSBC Composite PMI Flash | 58.90 | 58.70 | 56.50 |
| HSBC Manufacturing PMI Flash | 56.90 | 56.80 | 53.80 |
| HSBC Services PMI Flash | 58.10 | 58.30 | 57.20 |
India Short-Term Rates | Type: macro_line | Rate %: 5.5 (2026-02-01) | Range: 4.25–6.75 | Trend(5pt): 4.25,5.025,6.75,6.75,5.5
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
- Flash PMIs missed forecasts, with composite at 56.5, manufacturing at 53.8, and services at 57.2, pointing to moderating economic momentum amid external pressures.
- Indian stocks advanced strongly, Nifty 50 up 1.78% to 22,912.40 and Sensex up 1.89% to 74,068.45, despite rupee depreciation.
- RBI underscores India's resilience to global uncertainty, proposes stabilisation fund to mitigate shocks from oil volatility and geopolitics.
Yesterday's Recap
India's flash HSBC PMIs for March fell short of expectations, with the composite index at 56.5 versus consensus 58.7 and previous 58.9, indicating a slowdown. Manufacturing PMI dropped to 53.8 from 56.9 prior, below the 56.8 estimate, while services PMI slipped to 57.2 against 58.3 forecast and 58.1 previous, highlighting softer growth in major sectors. Despite the data misses, equities rose, with Nifty 50 gaining 1.78% to 22,912.40 on strength in banking and energy.
Sensex increased 1.89% to 74,068.45, led by HDFC Bank up 1.32% to 754.00 and Reliance up 0.18% to 1,410.40 amid oil fluctuations. The rupee weakened 0.79% to 93.98 against USD due to geopolitical risks, while EUR/INR rose 1.04% to 109.24. Brent crude fell 1.64% to 98.30, but gold climbed 3.20% to 4,545.00 on safe-haven flows.
Bitcoin edged down 0.42% to 70,618.06, and the short-term rate stayed at 5.50%.
The Day Ahead
No significant economic data is due today, allowing markets to absorb yesterday's PMI weakness and global tensions. Focus shifts to possible RBI updates on rupee stability amid Middle East conflict. Tomorrow also has no key releases, with traders eyeing forex reserve changes or liquidity moves.
Attention builds toward upcoming MPC minutes for inflation views. Equities and bonds may follow global signals, including oil trends, with USD/INR likely volatile from ongoing risks.
Other Economic Notes
India's media and entertainment industry is expected to reach Rs 3.3 trillion by 2028, fueled by digital and live segments, per FICCI-EY report, showing strength in consumer areas. Goldman Sachs cut its 2026 India growth outlook citing high oil prices, emphasizing energy import risks. SEBI is tightening rules on conflicts to improve market trust, while rupee trade promotion aims to counter global currency shifts.
Global Macro News
Escalating Middle East conflict, including Iran war, has heightened global uncertainty, raising oil supply concerns and pressuring India's import costs and inflation. (cont...)
