India Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
PMIs Miss, Stocks Rally
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Nifty 50 | 23,306.45 | +1.72% |
| Sensex | 75,273.45 | +1.63% |
| USD/INR | 94.30 | +1.13% |
| EUR/INR | 108.56 | -0.54% |
| Reliance | 1,417.50 | +0.40% |
| HDFC Bank | 785.60 | +2.71% |
| Brent Crude | 97.82 | -6.38% |
| Gold | 4,524.10 | +2.84% |
| Bitcoin | 71,236.57 | +1.02% |
| India Short-term Rate | 5.50% | +0.00% |
| India Long-term Rate | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| HSBC Composite PMI Flash | 58.90 | 58.70 | 56.50 |
| HSBC Manufacturing PMI Flash | 56.90 | 56.80 | 53.80 |
| HSBC Services PMI Flash | 58.10 | 58.30 | 57.20 |
India Short-term Rates | Type: macro_line | Short-term Rate (%): 5.5 (2026-02-01) | Range: 4.25–6.75 | Trend(5pt): 4.25,5.025,6.75,6.75,5.5
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
- HSBC flash PMIs disappointed, signaling slowdown in manufacturing and services amid oil volatility.
- Equities surged on falling Brent prices, with Nifty and Sensex up over 1.6%, while rupee weakened to 94.30.
- RBI faces inflation pressures from oil surges, but markets see low odds of near-term rate hikes.
Yesterday's Recap
India's HSBC flash PMIs underperformed consensus, with the composite index at 56.50 against expectations of 58.7, manufacturing at 53.8 versus 56.8, and services at 57.2 compared to 58.3, highlighting a potential economic slowdown driven by external pressures. Despite the weak data, Indian equities rallied strongly, as the Nifty 50 climbed 1.72% to 23,306.45 and the Sensex rose 1.63% to 75,273.45, buoyed by easing oil prices and positive global sentiment. The rupee depreciated 1.13% to 94.30 against the USD, hitting a record low amid capital outflows, though the RBI was seen intervening via dollar sales to defend the currency.
Brent crude plunged 6.38% to 97.82, providing relief to India's import bill, while gold advanced 2.84% to 4,524.10, reflecting safe-haven demand. Key stocks like HDFC Bank gained 2.71% to 785.60, and Reliance Industries edged up 0.40% to 1,417.50, supported by banking sector strength. The EUR/INR pair fell 0.54% to 108.56, indicating mixed currency dynamics.
India's short-term rate held steady at 5.50%, with no change in long-term rates reported.
The Day Ahead
No major Indian economic data releases are scheduled for today, allowing markets to digest yesterday's PMI misses and global oil developments. Attention may shift to any unscheduled RBI interventions in forex markets, given the rupee's recent slide. Tomorrow also lacks key events, but traders will monitor broader Asian market trends for cues on equity and currency movements.
Potential focus includes updates on India's coal flexibility plans, which have been delayed amid rising solar power adoption. Overall, the quiet calendar could amplify reactions to global news, such as US economic indicators. Investors should watch for any RBI statements on liquidity amid ongoing rupee pressures.
Other Economic Notes
India's media and entertainment sector is projected to expand to Rs 3.3 trillion by 2028, fueled by digital platforms and live events, according to the FICCI-EY report, underscoring growth in non-traditional industries. The government has extended the RBI's 4% retail inflation target until March 2031, emphasizing a balanced approach to growth and price stability. (cont...)
