India Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
RBI Holds Amid War Jitters
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Nifty 50 | 23,123.65 | +0.68% |
| Sensex | 74,616.58 | +0.69% |
| USD/INR | 92.86 | +0.05% |
| EUR/INR | 108.44 | +1.15% |
| Reliance | 1,340.90 | +2.78% |
| HDFC Bank | 811.00 | +5.05% |
| Brent Crude | 96.68 | -11.52% |
| Gold | 4,725.90 | +1.48% |
| Bitcoin | 70,987.87 | -1.32% |
| India Short-term Rate | 5.50% | +0.00% |
| India Long-term Rate | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| RBI Interest Rate Decision | 5.25 | 5.25 | 5.25 |
India Short-Term Rates | Type: macro_line | Short-Term Rate %: 5.5 (2026-02-01) | Range: 4.25–6.75 | Trend(5pt): 4.25,5.15,6.75,6.75,5.5
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
- RBI maintains repo rate at 5.50% as Middle East conflict fuels oil price spikes and inflation risks.
- Equities rise modestly with Nifty 50 up 0.68% and Sensex up 0.69%, buoyed by banking gains like HDFC Bank's 5.05% surge.
- Rupee weakens slightly to 92.86 vs USD amid oil volatility, while Brent crude plunges 11.52% to 96.68.
Yesterday's Recap
The RBI's Monetary Policy Committee held the repo rate steady at 5.50%, aligning with consensus expectations, as it assessed the economic fallout from the Middle East war and elevated oil prices around $110. Indian equities advanced modestly, with the Nifty 50 closing at 23,123.65 after a 0.68% gain and the Sensex at 74,616.58 up 0.69%, driven by strong performances in banking stocks like HDFC Bank, which rose 5.05% to 811.00. Reliance Industries climbed 2.78% to 1,340.90, providing additional support to indices despite broader market caution.
The USD/INR pair edged up 0.05% to 92.86, reflecting mild rupee depreciation amid speculation curbs by the RBI, while EUR/INR strengthened 1.15% to 108.44. Bond yields rose on inflation worries from $110 oil, pressuring fixed income markets. No other major data releases occurred, but the rate decision reinforced stability focus amid rupee pressures and El Niño effects.
Overall, markets digested the RBI's pause positively, with short-term rates steady at 5.50%.
The Day Ahead
No significant Indian economic releases or events are scheduled for today, allowing markets to focus on digesting yesterday's RBI decision and global cues. Attention may shift to rupee dynamics, with potential RBI interventions if oil-driven volatility persists. Broader sentiment could be influenced by any updates on Middle East ceasefire hopes, impacting energy prices and Indian imports.
Investors will monitor equity openings, particularly in oil-sensitive sectors like refining and banking. Global data remains light, but any US market movements could spill over to Indian assets via capital flows.
Other Economic Notes
India's economy demonstrates resilience despite external shocks, with the World Bank projecting 7.6% growth for FY26, supported by strong domestic demand and manufacturing rebound. The digital rupee has surpassed 150 million transactions, signaling RBI's push for fintech innovation and potential efficiency gains in payments. However, rising oil prices pose risks to inflation and current account deficits, challenging the high-growth trajectory amid geopolitical tensions.
