India Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Inflation Rises Slightly, Rupee Weakens
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Nifty 50 | 24,050.60 | +1.16% |
| Sensex | 77,550.25 | +1.20% |
| USD/INR | 94.51 | +2.21% |
| EUR/INR | 106.48 | -1.43% |
| Reliance | 1,350.20 | +1.52% |
| HDFC Bank | 810.30 | +1.58% |
| Brent Crude | 97.33 | +2.24% |
| Gold | 4,788.40 | +0.56% |
| Bitcoin | 74,243.48 | +4.93% |
| India Short-term Rate | 5.50% | +0.00% |
| India Long-term Rate | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 3.21 | 3.48 | 3.40 |
India Short-term Rates | Type: macro_line | Short-term Rate %: 5.5 (2026-02-01) | Range: 4.25–6.75 | Trend(5pt): 4.25,5.15,6.75,6.75,5.5
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
- India's YoY inflation rose to 3.4% in March, below consensus of 3.48% but up from previous 3.21%, driven by energy costs.
- Equity markets advanced with Nifty 50 up 1.16% to 24,050.60 and Sensex up 1.20% to 77,550.25, led by banking and energy sectors.
- USD/INR surged 2.21% to 94.51 amid oil price gains, while forex reserves jumped to $697.12 billion after RBI interventions.
Yesterday's Recap
India's March inflation rate rose to 3.4% year-over-year, below the consensus estimate of 3.48% but up from the previous 3.21%, influenced by higher energy costs offset by softer food prices. This highlighted the RBI's challenges with supply shocks, as noted in recent statements. Equity markets gained momentum, with the Nifty 50 closing at 24,050.60 after a 1.16% increase, supported by gains in Reliance at 1,350.20 up 1.52% and HDFC Bank at 810.30 up 1.58%.
The Sensex rose 1.20% to 77,550.25, amid hopes for RBI support on rupee volatility. In currency markets, USD/INR climbed 2.21% to 94.51 due to crude oil surges, while EUR/INR declined 1.43% to 106.48. Brent crude increased 2.24% to 97.33, heightening import pressures, and gold rose 0.56% to 4,788.40.
Bitcoin jumped 4.93% to 74,243.48. India's short-term rate remained at 5.50%, with no long-term rate change reported.
The Day Ahead
No significant economic data releases are scheduled for today, giving markets time to process yesterday's inflation data and global news. Focus may turn to potential RBI updates on rupee strategies following recent interventions. Traders will watch forex reserve trends, with reserves recently reaching $697.12 billion.
Sentiment could be affected by oil prices and equity inflows, with likely low volatility absent major events and emphasis on rupee movements.
Other Economic Notes
India's forex reserves increased by 1.32% to $697.12 billion, supported by RBI interventions and gold reserves, offering protection against global tensions like the US-Iran conflict. The rupee's slide toward 100 levels could challenge growth goals, as per recent reports. Trade shifts include Bangladesh's corn imports moving from India to Brazil and the US, potentially affecting Indian agricultural exports.
Almost all demonetized notes from 2016 were returned, according to RBI data.
