India Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
IP Slows, Stocks Climb
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Nifty 50 | 24,092.70 | +0.81% |
| Sensex | 77,303.63 | +0.83% |
| USD/INR | 94.52 | +0.28% |
| EUR/INR | 110.77 | +0.38% |
| Reliance | 1,364.00 | -0.13% |
| HDFC Bank | 788.65 | -0.15% |
| Brent Crude | 103.78 | -4.11% |
| Gold | 4,615.00 | -1.29% |
| Bitcoin | 76,321.43 | -1.35% |
| India Short-term Rate | 5.50% | +0.00% |
| India Long-term Rate | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial Production Year-over-Year | 5.20 | 4 | 4.10 |
| Manufacturing Production Year-over-Year | 6 | - | 4.30 |
India Manufacturing via IP YoY | Type: macro_line | YoY % Change: 5.21 (2026-02-01) | Range: -3.835–27.73 | Trend(6pt): 27.73,2.457,6.752,5.026,5.376,5.21
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
- Industrial production eased to 4.1% YoY, slightly above consensus but below prior, signaling moderating growth amid global headwinds.
- Equities advanced with Nifty 50 up 0.81% and Sensex 0.83%, bucking oil price volatility, while rupee weakened 0.28% versus USD.
- RBI highlights economic resilience despite US-Iran tensions, with MPC minutes noting inflation risks from oil surges and El Nino.
Yesterday's Recap
India's industrial production grew 4.1% year-over-year, edging above the 4% consensus but down from prior 5.2%, reflecting softer manufacturing momentum. Manufacturing production slowed to 4.3% YoY from 6% prior, underscoring supply chain strains from elevated oil prices. Despite the data miss, equities rallied, with Nifty 50 closing at 24,092.70 after a 0.81% gain, driven by pharma and IT sectors offsetting financials' weakness.
Sensex advanced 0.83% to 77,303.63, buoyed by domestic buying amid global caution. USD/INR rose 0.28% to 94.52 as dollar strength pressured emerging currencies, while EUR/INR climbed 0.38% to 110.77. Brent crude plunged 4.11% to 103.78, easing some inflation fears, but gold dipped 1.29% to 4,615.00.
Key stocks like Reliance fell 0.13% to 1,364.00 and HDFC Bank 0.15% to 788.65, amid rupee volatility.
The Day Ahead
No major Indian data releases are scheduled for today, providing markets a breather to digest yesterday's industrial figures and geopolitical developments. Attention may shift to global cues, including any updates on US-Iran tensions that could influence oil prices and rupee dynamics. Tomorrow also lacks key events, potentially keeping focus on equity flows and RBI liquidity operations.
Investors will monitor any ad-hoc RBI announcements on rupee management amid speculation curbs. Broader sentiment could hinge on international markets, with Nifty futures pointing to a flat open.
Other Economic Notes
India's economy demonstrates resilience against global volatility, as per the RBI bulletin, with steady growth supported by IT services and infrastructure spending. However, heat waves and oil surges from Hormuz disruptions pose fresh inflation risks, potentially elevating fertilizer subsidies by 20%. The new India-New Zealand FTA, offering 5,000 work visas for skilled Indians, boosts services exports and temporary employment opportunities.
Early delinquency rates in microfinance dropped sharply to 2.3%, indicating improved credit health. Trade suspensions through Benapole due to West Bengal elections affect non-perishable goods, though perishable items and medical travel remain unrestricted.
