India Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Services PMI Rebounds Amid Growth Trims
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Nifty 50 | 24,032.80 | -0.36% |
| Sensex | 77,017.79 | -0.33% |
| USD/INR | 95.18 | -0.08% |
| EUR/INR | 111.46 | +0.32% |
| Reliance | 1,464.90 | +0.09% |
| HDFC Bank | 776.70 | +0.57% |
| Brent Crude | 102.23 | -6.95% |
| Gold | 4,706.90 | +3.32% |
| Bitcoin | 81,181.76 | +0.31% |
| India Short-term Rate | 5.50% | +0.00% |
| India Long-term Rate | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
India Short-term Rate | Type: macro_line | Short-term Rate %: 5.5 (2026-02-01) | Range: 4.25–6.75 | Trend(5pt): 4.25,5.65,6.75,6.75,5.5
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
- India's services PMI climbed to 58.8 in April, driven by rising output, new orders, and domestic market strength.
- Growth forecasts cut due to global shocks, with UBS trimming GDP outlook by 0.5% amid Middle East tensions.
- Rupee remains steady despite outflows, as Brent crude falls 6.95% to 102.23, easing inflation concerns.
Yesterday's Recap
Indian equities closed slightly lower, with the Nifty 50 at 24,032.80 after a 0.36% drop and the Sensex at 77,017.79 following a 0.33% decline, amid concerns over global tensions. The USD/INR settled at 95.18, down 0.08%, showing mild rupee strength despite capital outflows, as per analyst polls. EUR/INR rose 0.32% to 111.46.
Brent crude fell sharply by 6.95% to 102.23, offering relief to India's energy imports, while gold surged 3.32% to 4,706.90 amid safe-haven demand. Bitcoin edged up 0.31% to 81,181.76. Key stocks were mixed: Reliance Industries gained 0.09% to 1,464.90, and HDFC Bank rose 0.57% to 776.70, supported by banking resilience.
The India short-term rate stayed at 5.50%, unchanged. Services PMI data for April showed recovery to 58.8, boosting sentiment, though no other major releases occurred, with markets influenced by reports of growth forecast cuts and rupee stability.
The Day Ahead
No economic data releases or events are scheduled for today or tomorrow, per the calendar, potentially leading to subdued trading volumes. Markets may focus on digesting recent PMI figures, crude price movements, and any updates on Middle East tensions. Attention could turn to RBI commentary or corporate news from sectors like IT and banking.
Rupee and equity flows will be key monitors, with external global factors possibly driving volatility in an otherwise quiet period. The lack of catalysts emphasizes broader themes such as inflation risks and growth outlooks.
Other Economic Notes
India's growth story has sidelined workers, with stagnant real wages and unrest in areas like Noida underscoring the challenges of prioritizing services over manufacturing, leaving low-skilled labor vulnerable. FDI outflows are challenging market resilience amid global uncertainty, though inflows into manufacturing and renewables provide some balance. Reforms are essential to navigate shocks, as growth slowed to 6.6% with rising inflation risks from external events.
Energy security is a priority to maintain momentum, as highlighted by RBI officials. Services sector strength in April, with PMI at 58.8, reflects domestic demand buffering against global headwinds.
