India Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
India CPI Undershoots, Markets Tumble
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Nifty 50 | 23,379.55 | -1.83% |
| Sensex | 74,559.24 | -1.92% |
| USD/INR | 95.63 | +0.25% |
| EUR/INR | 112.18 | -0.02% |
| Reliance | 1,359.00 | -0.37% |
| HDFC Bank | 748.70 | -0.23% |
| Brent Crude | 105.71 | -1.91% |
| Gold | 4,708.70 | +0.66% |
| Bitcoin | 79,472.07 | -1.25% |
| India Short-term Rate | 5.50% | +0.00% |
| India Long-term Rate | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 3.40 | 3.80 | 3.48 |
India Industrial Production YoY | Type: macro_line | IP % Change YoY: 5.21 (2026-02-01) | Range: -3.835–19.33 | Trend(5pt): 13.46,-0.8528,12,3.282,5.21
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
- India's April inflation rose to 3.48% y/y, below consensus of 3.8% but up from 3.4%, amid moderated food pressures despite monsoon risks.
- Equity benchmarks plunged with Nifty 50 down 1.83% to 23,379.55 and Sensex 1.92% to 74,559.24, hit by US-Iran tensions and rupee weakness.
- Rupee depreciated 0.25% to 95.63, a record low; Brent crude fell 1.91% to $105.71, offering relief amid geopolitical threats to credit recovery.
Yesterday's Recap
India's April inflation rate came in at 3.48% year-over-year, below the consensus estimate of 3.8% but up slightly from the previous 3.4%, indicating contained price pressures despite concerns over poor monsoons. Equity markets faced heavy selling, with the Nifty 50 ending at 23,379.55 after a 1.83% decline and the Sensex at 74,559.24 down 1.92%, driven by broad losses in IT, banking, and auto sectors amid escalating US-Iran tensions. The rupee weakened 0.25% to 95.63 against the dollar, hitting a record low, fueled by FII outflows and initial crude price spikes.
Reliance Industries closed at 1,359.00 with a 0.37% drop, while HDFC Bank fell 0.23% to 748.70, reflecting sector strains. Brent crude settled at 105.71 after a 1.91% fall, providing some respite, but gold climbed 0.66% to 4,708.70 on safe-haven buying. Bitcoin declined 1.25% to 79,472.07, echoing global risk aversion.
The India short-term rate remained at 5.50%, with no long-term rate changes noted.
The Day Ahead
No key Indian economic releases are due today, giving markets time to absorb the inflation data and geopolitical news. Focus may shift to any informal RBI remarks on rupee volatility, though none are scheduled. Rural auto sector stress from weak monsoons could prompt sector updates, influencing trades.
Globally, Bank of Canada interest rate announcements, monetary policy report, business outlook survey, and consumer expectations release at 09:45 ET and 11:30 ET may impact EM currencies and yields. Traders will monitor US-Iran developments for effects on crude and equities. Potential news on infrastructure deals, like Actis restarting Nxt-Infra sale with Ambit, could emerge.
Other Economic Notes
Rural areas show signs of slowdown, with major tractor and motorcycle firms forecasting sales drops due to poor monsoons, potentially stressing the auto sector and broader economy. AI adoption is advancing, as 90% of mature adopters reduce BPO spending per a Z47-OpenAI report, enhancing IT efficiency but sparking cyber liability concerns that boost demand for insurance. <i>↓ p.2</i>
