India Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
IIP Beats Lift Equities, RBI Set to Hold
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Nifty 50 | 23,483.55 | +0.43% |
| Sensex | 74,649.84 | +0.52% |
| USD/INR | 95.69 | +0.45% |
| EUR/INR | 111.13 | +0.44% |
| Reliance | 1,313.20 | -0.11% |
| HDFC Bank | 753.65 | +0.72% |
| Brent Crude | 96.78 | +0.81% |
| Gold | 4,497.50 | +0.19% |
| Bitcoin | 62,805.62 | -5.84% |
| India Short-term Rate | 5.50% | +0.00% |
| India Long-term Rate | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial Production Year-over-Year | 4.10 | 3.90 | 4.90 |
| Manufacturing Production Year-over-Year | 4.30 | - | 6.20 |
India Industrial Production YoY | Type: macro_line | YoY %: 3.911 (2026-03-01) | Range: -3.835–19.33 | Trend(5pt): 11.63,3.575,2.246,5.091,3.911
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Friday (2026-06-05) | |||
| RBI Interest Rate Decision | 5.25 | 5.25 | 20:30 |
| GDP Growth Year-over-Year | 7.80 | 7.20 | 02:30 |
- Industrial production surged to 4.9% y/y in April, beating consensus of 3.9%, while manufacturing output rose 6.2% y/y.
- Nifty 50 gained 0.43% to 23,483.55 and Sensex rose 0.52% as RBI decision looms with repo rate steady at 5.50%.
- USD/INR climbed 0.45% to 95.69 amid higher Brent crude, with markets pricing steady policy ahead of GDP print.
Yesterday's Recap
April industrial production printed at 4.9% y/y, exceeding the 3.9% consensus and prior 4.1% reading, while manufacturing production accelerated to 6.2% y/y from 4.3%. Equity benchmarks advanced with Nifty 50 closing at 23,483.55 and Sensex at 74,649.84. The rupee weakened as USD/INR rose to 95.69 and EUR/INR to 111.13.
Brent crude increased 0.81% to 96.78, supporting energy-linked stocks, while gold edged up 0.19% to 4,497.50. HDFC Bank gained 0.72% to 753.65, offsetting a 0.11% dip in Reliance. Short-term rates held at 5.50% with no change in the session.
The Day Ahead
Markets await the RBI interest rate decision on 4 June, with consensus pointing to a hold at the current 5.50% repo rate. GDP growth data for the latest quarter follows on 5 June, expected at 7.2% y/y versus 7.8% prior. Services PMI momentum from May at 59.8 will inform growth views ahead of the print.
Traders will monitor any RBI liquidity signals and intervention language on the rupee. No MPC minutes are scheduled, keeping focus on the policy statement language.
Other Economic Notes
HSBC India Services PMI rose to 59.8 in May, extending expansion and supporting services-led growth. Deficient monsoon risks could lift headline inflation above 5% in FY27 according to recent analysis. RBI plans to expand the digital rupee via welfare schemes and cross-border payments.
Fertility rates have fallen below replacement in southern states, posing long-term labor supply challenges. FDI inflows reached solid levels in April, concentrated in services and manufacturing.
Global Macro News
India and the US are 99% complete on the first phase of a bilateral trade deal, per Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal. Renewed US-Iran tensions pushed oil prices higher, pressuring the rupee and widening the current account gap. Global risk sentiment improved on softer US data, aiding FII inflows into Indian equities.
Indonesia’s recent policy response offers a template some traders expect RBI to monitor for rupee defense. <i>↓ p.2</i>
